
Wittbecker on Aluminum: Middle East trades and $4B smelter for Oklahoma
Since March 21 when UAE announced plans to invest $1.4 trillion in the US, including an aluminum smelter, the market has been waiting for details. Now, we have some.
Since March 21 when UAE announced plans to invest $1.4 trillion in the US, including an aluminum smelter, the market has been waiting for details. Now, we have some.
US cold-rolled (CR) coil prices were down again this week, slipping six weeks in a row and seeing the sharpest drop-off since last July.
Domestic hot-rolled (HR) coil prices fell this week, now down seven of the last eight weeks.
Quotas featured in the UK agreement may show up in future deals.
CRU Group revised down its forecast for North American auto production by about 800,000 to 14.7 million this year.
The UK deal may signal relaxation of the heaviest tariffs. The suspension of the reciprocal tariffs greater than 10% - remember, 57 countries were hit with that - ends on July 9. But it could be extended. If more deals like the one with the UK are struck, the suspensions may continue to permit more agreements - relieving global markets of considerable worry.
Here are highlights of what’s happened and a few things to keep an eye on this upcoming week.
US cold-rolled (CR) coil prices moved lower again this week, slipping five weeks in a row now. Most offshore markets mirrored the move, ticking down as well.
Meanwhile, its Canadian operations have been hurt by the broader tariffs proposed by the United States.
Domestic hot-rolled (HR) coil prices moved lower this week, now down six of the last seven weeks. Recent price erosion has been seen in offshore markets, keeping the price gap between imports and domestic products largely flat week on week (w/w).
The US Commerce Department has set up an “inclusions process” to add derivative aluminum and steel articles within the scope of the new Section 232 tariffs.
US cold-rolled (CR) coil prices edged lower again this week, slipping four weeks in a row now. Most offshore markets mirrored the move, ticking down marginally as well.
Section 232 returned on March 12, and since then, the price gap between offshore and US hot band has tightened.
United Airlines raised eyebrows earlier this month when it provided two forecasts for 2025 – one assuming a relatively stable economy and another assuming a recession. The reason? Uncertainty around the impact of President Trump’s policy shocks on the broader economy. And it sometimes feels like we’re seeing a battle between those two narratives (stable vs recession) play out within in the pages of this newsletter.
President Trump cast a wide net with the proposed, reciprocal tariffs. The negotiating stage will be critical to determining the success of his strategy. And for those suffering tariff whiplash, don’t expect the pace of change to slow down just because the reciprocal tariffs are entering a negotiating phase.
US cold-rolled (CR) coil prices declined again this week, slipping for a third straight week. Most offshore markets did the opposite, moving higher this week.
Domestic hot-rolled coil prices were flat this week after dropping for four straight weeks. Most offshore markets bucked the trend and gained ground.
SMU’s Steel Demand Index has moved into contraction, according to late April indicators. The slowdown comes in response to growing tariff uncertainty after the index reached a four-year high in late February.
Representatives from bulk commodity shippers and consumer goods argued against the fees, saying it could cripple supply chains because of the very dominance that China has in the existing shipping fleet.
Operational results painted a picture of a company that produced more aluminum but shipped less of it as a result of tariffs and timing mismatches.
A modest week-to-week change in HR price understates a huge swing in expectations.
The union is also urging stronger enforcement against countries such as China which break trade rules, and a coordinated Canada-US strategy to protect union jobs across the North America
US cold-rolled (CR) coil prices declined this week, slipping for the first time since early February. Most offshore markets deviated, moving higher this week.
Domestic hot-rolled (HR) coil prices declined this week for a third straight week. Most offshore markets bucked the trend and gained ground. Uncertainty in the US market around tariffs, especially after “Liberation Day,” caused US prices to slip as buyers moved to the sidelines. It’s unclear to date whether the 90-day pause on the more […]
For trading partners, the tariffs will reduce demand for exports and depress growth. Over the coming days, trade partners will almost certainly announce retaliation, which will hit US exports.
Respondents to the SMU Survey weigh in on the steel landscape.
The constant flow of information we all receive can be a little overwhelming, but SMU is here to help with a snapshot of the week.
US cold-rolled (CR) coil prices moved higher again this week, while offshore prices were mixed.
Canada imposes auto tariffs, while automaker Stellantis temporarily idles some plants.
Domestic hot-rolled (HR) coil prices declined this week, a trend again reflected in most offshore markets. Despite similarities, the shifting tariff landscape has made for a wild ride in Q1.