• Skip to main content

    Analysis

    October 22, 2025

    Join SMU and AMU for a Community Chat with Wiley on Trump, Trade, and Tariffs

    Written by Michael Cowden

    Want to know the latest on Trump, tariffs, and trade policy – and the impact on both steel and aluminum?

    Join Steel Market Update (SMU), Aluminum Market Update (AMU), and leading law firm Wiley for a Community Chat on Thursday, Nov. 13, at 11 am ET. You can register here.

    We’ll recap where we’ve been this year and where we might be headed next year. And we’ll be talking not only steel but aluminum, too.

    Veteran trade attorney Alan Price will join us again to talk about what President Trump’s tariff and trade policies mean for steel. And his colleague, Robert DeFrancesco, will discuss what it all means for aluminum.

    When we last caught up with Wiley in March, stricter Section 232 tariffs had just gone into effect amid surging steel prices and extending lead times. A lot has happened since: “Liberation Day” tariffs, additional Section 232s on steel- and aluminum-intensive goods, and the doubling of S232 on imported steel and aluminum to 50%.

    That’s not to mention an inclusion process for downstream products. Meanwhile, the USMCA review will become a point of focus as lead times tick closer to 2026.

    Some points we’ll consider: Will Trump reduce or lift the 50% Section 232 tariff from Canada? If he did, would we see a repeat of 2019, when the removal of tariffs sent US steel prices lower?

    Could we see an even more dramatic reversal in aluminum, where the Midwest premium has skyrocketed because the US imports most of its metal from its northern neighbor? Or will the tariff remain in place unless Canada acts more aggressively to constrain overseas imports?

    Then there is the question of reshoring. The tariff wall built by the US has constrained imports, limiting supply. But what about demand: Will reshoring increase it? And how long might that process take?

    We’ll take your questions too. So don’t forget to pack some good ones for the Q&A on Thursday (yes, Thursday!) Nov. 13 at 11 am ET.

    Michael Cowden

    Michael Cowden is editor-in-chief for Steel Market Update. Cowden has covered the steel industry since 2007. He specializes in flat-rolled steel but has also reported on steel long products, steel pipe and tube, and aluminum. Before joining SMU, Cowden held reporting jobs at Fastmarkets AMM in Chicago, the Associated Press in Pittsburgh, and the Cambodia Daily in Phnom Penh. He has also worked as a copy editor and in marketing at the University of Chicago Press. Cowden has a BA in English from the University of Chicago and an MSJ journalism from Northwestern University’s Medill School of Journalism. Contact him at michael@steelmarketupdate.com or 724-759-7872.

    Read more from Michael Cowden

    Latest in Analysis

    Cliffs shifts customers to index-linked, take-or-pay contracts

    Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. expects to earn more from the repricing of contract tonnage than it previously projected. The Cleveland-based steelmaker raised its estimate for the earnings benefit of the repricing to about $850 million from about $500 million. The company also said negotiations for 2027 contracts are progressing better than expected. More than half of the 2027 renewal process was complete as of Cliffs' third-quarter earnings call on Monday morning.

    Cleveland-Cliffs postpones Burns Harbor furnace reline to 2028

    Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. has rescheduled the planned reline of the C blast furnace at its Burns Harbor steel mill in northwest Indiana from mid-2027 to April 2028, company executives said. The delay allows the Cleveland-based steelmaker to keep the furnace, which has annual capacity of ~2.2 million short tons, operating while steel prices and demand remain favorable for mills, they said during the company’s third-quarter earnings call on Monday.

    Brazilian pig iron trade with US stuck in doldrums

    The pig iron trade from Brazil into the US has been lackluster over the last month with minimal activity. Many players in the trade thought activity would increase after the International Iron Metallics Assn (IIMA) meeting in Chicago earlier this month, but it has not materialized so far. Part of the reason could be the US scrap buy for October stretched out longer than usual, as buyers and sellers haggled over price. Now that prices settled upward, there may be different ideas on where pig iron prices should settle.

    SMU Survey: Current Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Index up, Future Sentiment flat

    SMU’s Current Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Index ticked up this week, while Future Sentiment remained flat again, according to our latest market survey.  Every two weeks, SMU polls thousands of steel-industry executives, asking them to rate their companies’ chances of success today and also three to six months down the road. We use their responses to calculate our proprietary Current and Future Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices, measures tracked since 2008.

    Fed Beige Book finds stronger steel, machinery demand but rising cost pressure

    Manufacturing activity improved in several Federal Reserve districts, but conditions remained mixed nationwide, according to the Fed’s Oct. 14 Beige Book report. Demand was strongest in steel, machinery, defense-related products, and data center infrastructure. Steel producers in the Cleveland District reported firm spot market demand. Data center, power-generation, defense, and aerospace projects supported orders. Long mill lead times kept customer inventories lean and prices high. Producers also reported higher orders from truck-trailer and light-vehicle manufacturers. International demand for hydrogen vehicle parts increased.