Tag: Trump

The big show is here again. SMU Steel Summit begins on Monday. This year, like last year, more than 1,500 people will be joining us. And I couldn’t be more excited to have everyone here in Atlanta.

As everyone surely knows by now, the SMU Steel Summit starts on Monday in Atlanta, Ga. So, this is a great opportunity to reflect on how much has changed since the 2024 Summit. Certainly, no one could have imagined the wholesale and transformative changes to U.S. and global trade policy.

Veteran trade attorney Lewis Leibowitz will join SMU for a Community Chat on Wednesday, Aug. 13, at 11 am ET.

The tariffs amount to a wholesale transformation of US trade policy from one promoting increasing international interaction to one of restricting trade to serve national strategic goals.

As the president’s August 1 tariff deadline approaches, the “Let’s Make a Deal” game show returns to primetime (the Monty Hall version, of course). As the administration begins rolling out trade deals, we are starting to see what’s behind door number one and who is getting a “zonk.”

Trade issues do not seem poised to leave the headlines anytime soon. And as recent developments show, the administration’s tariff policy remains ever-changing.

The difference: The spat with Turkey was a big deal for steel. This time, the 50% reciprocal tariff for Brazil – if it goes into effect as threatened on Aug.1 – hits everything from coffee and to pig iron. It seems almost custom-built to inflict as much pain as possible on Brazil.

President Donald Trump on Wednesday said he would increase the “reciprocal” tariff on imports from Brazil to 50% effective Aug. 1. That could have big implications for pig iron.

Institute for Supply Management CEO Tom Derry will join SMU for our next Community Chat on Wednesday, July 23, at 11 a.m. ET (10 a.m. CT)

I’m not sure how many different ways I can write that it’s been a quiet market ahead of Independence Day. There are variations on that theme. I’ve heard everything from the ominous “eerily quiet” to "getting better" and even the occasional “blissfully unaware” (because I’m enjoying my vacation).

Most economists will tell you that universal tariffs will result in inflation and reduce demand, causing a recession or worse. (After all, this is what happened in the 1930s). It is a rare product that is so essential that demand will not go down if prices go up.

SEC documents also name Trump specifically as having veto power certain decisions are part of the “Golden Share” provision.

Maybe some of this uncertainty will get ironed out ahead of Liberation Day tariffs resetting higher rates on July 9. But if I had to place a wager, it would be on more drama and last-minute brinksmanship - whether it comes to the Liberation Day tariffs or the various Section 232s that are in the works.

We’ll have a lot to talk about because construction is at the intersection of so many of today’s hot-button issues. The main question: Will construction thrive or dive in the rest of ’25? (Nothing wrong with a rhyme, even in serious times.)

The actions, which includes tariffs, are necessary to protect the Canadian market from global overcapacity. They are also needed because other countries have redirected material to Canada as a result of higher US tariffs, Carney said.

Could we see an abrupt shift now that oil prices have spiked higher? Will we see a rebound in the rig count? Will this create a snap-loading effect (think waterski rope), where the industry suddenly does a 180-degree turn? If so, will that bring with it increased demand for steel products used by the energy industry?

Nippon Steel and USS have finalized their "partnership" in a deal first announced in December 2023.

Getting back to the price increases I mentioned at the top of this article, to what extent are they aimed at raising prices and to what extent are they aimed at stopping the bleeding that was happening in the second half of May, before President Trump announced the 50% tariff?

The Trump administration has expanded the list of derivative steel products covered by the now 50% Section 232 tariff.

Cleveland-Cliffs plans to increase prices for hot-rolled (HR) coil to $950 per short ton (st) with the opening of its July spot order book. The Cleveland-based steelmaker said the price hike was effective immediately in a letter to customers dated Monday.

In short, when tariffs go up, jobs in consuming industries go down. There is conclusive evidence from past actions: safeguard tariffs in 2002 and Section 232 tariffs in 2018. It is happening again in 2025. The Trump administration wants foreign producers (and US retailers) to absorb tariff increases (except in antidumping cases, where foreign absorption of tariffs is illegal).

President Trump has approved the sale of U.S. Steel to Nippon Steel, according to an executive order signed on Friday, June 13. Both the Pittsburgh-based steelmaker and the Japanese steelmaker cheered the development.

If you’re feeling a sudden jerk and a case of tariff whiplash coming on, you’re not alone.

Steel equities and steel futures fell hard after news broke earlier this week that the US and Mexico might reach an agreement that would result in the 50% Section 232 tariff coming off Mexican steel. The sharp declines didn’t make much sense, especially if, as some reports indicate, Mexico might agree to a fixed quota. They didn't make sense even if steel flows between the US and Mexico remain unchanged.

President Trump says the US government will hold a 51% stake in U.S. Steel after the Nippon deal.

We’ll have a lot to talk about because construction is at the intersection of so many of today’s hot-button issues. The main question: Will construction thrive or dive in the rest of ’25? (Nothing wrong with a rhyme, even in serious times.)

Even before the news about Mexico, I didn’t want to overstate the magnitude of the change in momentum. As far as we could tell, there hadn’t been a frenzy of new ordering following President Trump’s announcement of 50% Section 232 tariffs. But higher tariffs had unquestionably raised prices for imports, which typically provide the floor for domestic pricing. We’d heard, for example, that prices below $800 per short ton for hot-rolled (HR) coil were gone from the domestic market – even for larger buyers.

Domestic hot-rolled coil prices edged up marginally this week, while offshore prices ticked down.

Timna Tanners, managing director of equity research for Wolfe Research, will be the featured speaker on the next SMU Community Chat. The webinar will be on Wednesday, June 11, at 11 am ET. It’s free to attend.

I think there is an obvious case for sheet and plate prices going higher from here. That’s because, on a very basic level, the floor for flat-rolled steel prices, which is typically provided by imports, is now significantly higher than it was a week ago.