Tag: Tariffs

In this week's Market Chatter, steel buyers point to tight supply and steady demand as reasons sheet prices could keep rising, with many expecting HRC to reach $1,400-1,449 per short ton in two months. Views on when the rally will peak are mixed, with some anticipating further increases while others mention softening demand and political uncertainty. Respondents also disagree on tariffs' impact. They say reshoring is generating activity but has yet to translate consistently into demand.

Latin American steelmaker Ternium is considering filing more anti-dumping cases in Mexico, according to a report from Reuters. Ternium CEO Maximo Vedoya told Reuters on Tuesday that the company would “very likely” file more trade cases in Mexico after supporting recent trade actions there. Additionally, Vedoya said the US and Mexico share a common issue in combating unfairly traded steel.

Trade enforcement measures, including tariffs, should remain a bipartisan priority as a new Congress takes shape, speakers said during an event marking the release of a new report from the Alliance for American Manufacturing (AAM).

The election last Tuesday was a stunning rebuke to President Trump and many of his policies. High prices and pessimism about the economy were clearly on the minds of voters and the members of Congress they sent to Washington. Trade policy can help address those issues. Some trade experts think the new Congress could deal with tariffs on imports from Canada early on. I also expect hearings and new bills to more closely control presidential authority over tariffs. Much is unknown about what will happen come January, when new members convene. But some points are already obvious to those who see politics as a means to an end (governing) rather than as an end in itself (getting elected).

The Aluminum Association is pushing for tariff rates to be aligned in Canada, the US and Mexico.

Republicans got shellacked in the midterms on Tuesday. Equities got shellacked on Wall St. on Thursday. And steel prices continued upward as if nothing had happened. I asked a couple of weeks ago whether the supply squeeze we’re seeing now is more intense than what we saw in 2021. It’s becoming increasingly clear that it is by most metrics, with the notable exception of price. Don’t believe me? Read our exclusive interview with Worthington Steel President and CEO Geoff Gilmore. If you take away just one quote, this is it: "I’ve been in the business for 28 years, and this is the toughest market that I’ve encountered," Gilmore told SMU.

On Monday and Tuesday of this week, SMU polled steel buyers on an array of topics, ranging from market prices, demand, and inventories to tariffs, imports, and evolving market events. We are sharing a selection of the comments we received below, in each buyer’s own words. Before diving in, we reviewed all the responses collected and compiled these key takeaways: Respondents overwhelmingly anticipate further increases. Buyers cite limited supply, mill delays, low inventories, and steady-to-strong demand. Most say demand is generally stable to improving, with some purchasing driven by fears of higher prices or unavailable material rather than stronger underlying consumption. Most respondents report faster inventory turnover, while shortages are constraining sales and, in some cases, prompting customer allocations. Buyers increasingly see imports as a way to secure scarce material, though domestic-origin requirements, delivery timing, and pricing risks remain obstacles.

US manufacturing activity expanded for the 10th consecutive month in October, according to supply executives in the Institute for Supply Management's latest report. The October ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index registered 55.5%, up one percentage point from the prior month. An index reading above 50% indicates the manufacturing economy is growing, while a reading below that indicates contraction. ISM noted that the overall economy continued to expand in October for the 24th consecutive month, emphasizing that a PMI reading above 47.5% over a period of time generally indicates that the overall economy is growing.

It’s the scariest time of year in Washington, D.C. … election season. The city is a veritable haunted house of prognostication and speculation as everyone tries to discern which way the howling wind will blow. We’ll let the fortune tellers and prediction markets guess the outcomes of the midterms. What we do know is this: the steel industry has experienced its share of tricks and treats over the past few months. Below are a few notable steel tricks and treats this Halloween season.

In this week's Steel Market Chatter, we explore manufacturing and service center buyers' comments about demand, prime scrap, the Iran War, and expectations for Section 232 tariffs in USMCA negotiations. We'll share a selection of the comments we received in each buyer's own words. Dive in with us into the results and findings of our latest Flat-Rolled Steel Survey.

After flying into a rain-soaked London seeking answers to questions on key issues in the aluminum space, we left the city with uncertainty remaining. As always, the speakers at LME Week 2026, which ran from Oct. 19-23, did a solid job evaluating the fundamentals for each of the metals they were covering. But most shied away from providing specific price forecasts. Who could blame them given the imponderables below?

Earlier this month, retired General David Petraeus, whose resume is as impressive as any I’ve seen, held a fireside chat at the National Press Club with Century Aluminum CEO Jesse Gary and Mark Duffy, the president and CEO of the American Primary Aluminum Association. During that widely reported chat, retired Gen. Petraeus stated that the US was not militarily ready for a conflict. Because the event concentrated on aluminum, and primary aluminum at that, his remarks hit harder than I think the full facts warrant.

The Canadian federal government and the Ontario provincial government have announced five-year commitments totaling CA$5.22 billion (US$3.72 billion) for a Joint Steel Action Fund. That funding comes alongside up to an additional CA$2.5 billion over two years for large-scale automotive capital projects. The federal and provincial governments said the package is intended to support domestic steel production, automotive manufacturing, and the transition to connected and electric vehicles.

The majority of buyers SMU polled this week expect prices to continue rising from here, supported by limited supply. Demand is said to be strong, with most remarking that it is stable to improving. Most say inventories are moving faster this year than last, attributed to tight supply, late mill deliveries, and generally leaner supply chains. Imports continue to appeal to many buyers on both price and availability, but lead times, tariffs, and other risks remain. Buyers are split on whether President Trump’s tariff policies are helping their businesses and whether they’re seeing manufacturing reshoring.

AZZ Inc. said galvanized flat-rolled steel availability remains a constraint for its Precoat Metals business, complicating customer sourcing and logistics. Customers are having difficulty securing substrate within required timeframes, and costs remain elevated, President and CEO Tom Ferguson said on an earnings conference call on Wednesday. He said AZZ is helping customers locate domestic and imported material and manage logistics. The situation has “definitely” affected the business, he added. “It’s tight. We see it every day, particularly galvanized sheet metal.”

Steel markets in the United States now feature supply shortages. Spot tons are well-nigh unavailable, and even contract tons are scarce. Based on the available statistics, the US market for flat-rolled products is seriously constrained. The US economy is still the strongest in the world, and manufacturing output remains vigorous. But the available supply is tight. The reason is fairly obvious. US domestic supply has increased a bit. Meanwhile, imports have fallen significantly.

President Trump’s senior counsel for trade and manufacturing, Peter Navarro, has criticized South Korea for subsidized and transshipped steel. “South Korea is inundating the U.S. with highly subsidized steel and steel transshipped from China,” Navarro wrote in a post on X. “We are cracking down." In comments to C-SPAN, Navarro pointed to the White House’s recent report, the Great Transshipment Scam.

Earlier this week, SMU polled steel buyers on topics ranging from market prices, demand, and inventories to tariffs, imports, and evolving market events. Below, we share a selection of the comments we received, in each buyer’s own words.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has threatened legal action against Cleveland-Cliffs over the layoffs announced earlier this week at its Stelco mill in Hamilton, Ontario.

US steel industry groups representing most of domestic steel production are urging the Trump administration to tighten trade measures on steel imports from South Korea. They are seeking a South Korea-specific tariff-rate quota (TRQ) and an investigation into a reported import surge.

In 2015, finished steel imports were 29% of apparent domestic consumption of steel, as estimated by AISI. In 2025, the import share had fallen to 18%. Steel lobbyists think that is progress, but the reality is more complex.

US sheet buyers have grappled with supply scarcity in both the spot and contract markets throughout 2026. Now the supply squeeze is spilling over into 2027, according to market participants.

Several steel trade organizations have called on President Trump to resist weakening Section 232 steel tariffs.

The American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) is pressing President Donald Trump to raise the issue of China’s steel exports and industry subsidies during his upcoming summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

The phrase “Fortress North America” seems to resurface anytime US, Canada, and Mexico trade negotiations roll around. The idea of an economic Fortress North America burst onto the scene in the late 1980s and early 1990s in the lead up to NAFTA. In theory...

The rally in steel sheet prices is officially a year old. We haven’t seen a yearlong price rally since 2021, when a snapback in demand following the early days of the pandemic resulted in one of the biggest steel market booms since World War II.

United Steelworkers (USW) International President Roxanne Brown urged US and Canadian trade representatives to reach an agreement that puts working families first. Her words come as trade talks between the two nations remain at an impasse, and escalating tensions have led to new tariffs on both sides. “This conflict is hurting jobs. It’s hurting facilities. It’s hurting communities. And it’s creating uncertainty for workers and families in both countries,” Brown said at a press event on Tuesday.

The US sheet market is really feeling the squeeze. It’s not just spot tons that are a concern. Contract tons are increasingly scarce too.

A policy that protects steel production while making downstream American manufacturing less competitive internationally merely moves the injury along the domestic supply chain.

Canada’s retaliatory tariffs on US goods have drawn support from Canadian steel producers and labor groups. Meanwhile, US manufacturers and trade officials are calling for renewed negotiations as the dispute adds costs and uncertainty to cross-border supply chains.