Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
June 10, 2015
I was able to pick up a number of sponsors for our Steel Summit Conference. We now have commitments from: Magic Coil Products, Pacesetter Steel, Alliance Steel and Cargill. We thank those who support our efforts to produce quality steel workshops and conferences. Sponsors, such as the ones named above, help us keep our conference affordable. Compare our $1200 full price to that of Steel Success Strategies at $2399.
A quick reminder that we are still working on our early bird rates for the 2015 Steel Summit Conference which takes our $1200 full price down to $1000. Early bird ends on July 1, 2015.
When you add in another $100 per person discount for Steel Market Update member companies you got a heck of a deal for a two day conference with the likes of Dan DiMicco, Alan Beaulieu, Chris Kuehl, Kevin Dempsey, Lewis Leibowitz and many, many more quality speakers/presenters. Registration is open on our website or by contacting our office: 800-432-3475. If you need an invoice we can do that. Want to send cash? We can take that as well.
For those of you in the Chicago area, I will be there mid-week this coming week. I am speaking at a Bank of America dinner on the 17th and both Ray Culley and I will be at the Association of Steel Distributors regional meeting at the Hotel Sofitel on the 18th.
We are getting close to announcing when I will be reporting from the deck of an 1000′ iron ore carrier on the Great Lakes. The plan is for me to travel from Duluth, Minnesota to Indiana Harbor and write/tweet about my experiences aboard the ship. Many thanks to Interlake Steamship Company who will be my host. You will be able to follow my tweets at: SMUsteel on Twitter.
I am trying to think of a good hashtag (#) for my posts coming off the ship. If you have any ideas you can send them to me at: John@SteelMarketUpdate.com.
If you have any questions you would like for me to research while on the ship – send those over to me as well.
As always your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, Publisher
John Packard
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Final Thoughts
Steel equities and steel futures fell hard after news broke earlier this week that the US and Mexico might reach an agreement that would result in the 50% Section 232 tariff coming off Mexican steel. The sharp declines didn’t make much sense, especially if, as some reports indicate, Mexico might agree to a fixed quota. They didn't make sense even if steel flows between the US and Mexico remain unchanged.
Final Thoughts
Even before the news about Mexico, I didn’t want to overstate the magnitude of the change in momentum. As far as we could tell, there hadn’t been a frenzy of new ordering following President Trump’s announcement of 50% Section 232 tariffs. But higher tariffs had unquestionably raised prices for imports, which typically provide the floor for domestic pricing. We’d heard, for example, that prices below $800 per short ton for hot-rolled (HR) coil were gone from the domestic market – even for larger buyers.
Final Thoughts
I want to draw your attention to SMU’s monthly scrap market survey. It’s a premium feature that complements our long-running steel market survey. We’ve been running our scrap survey since late January. And over just that short time, it’s become a valuable way not only for us to assess where scrap prices might go but also to quantify some of the “fuzzy” indicators - like sentiment and flows - that help to put the price in context.
Final Thoughts
I think there is an obvious case for sheet and plate prices going higher from here. That’s because, on a very basic level, the floor for flat-rolled steel prices, which is typically provided by imports, is now significantly higher than it was a week ago.
Final Thoughts
We're about to hit 50% Section 232 steel tariffs. What could happen?