• Skip to main content

    Analysis

    Final thoughts

    Written by Michael Cowden


    There are just 40 days left until the SMU Steel Summit 2024 gets underway on Aug. 26 at the Georgia International Convention Center (GICC) in Atlanta.

    And I’m pleased to announce that it’s official now: More than 1,000 people have registered to attend one of the largest gatherings of the steel industry!

    Another big development: The desktop version of the networking app for Steel Summit has officially launched!

    (Editor’s note: This is the desktop version. The mobile version will be available from app stores closer to the date of the conference.)

    Ladies and gentlemen, start your networking!

    Those of you who have already registered to attend should have received an email from conferences@crugroup.com with your login details. It might take a few hours after registering before you receive your login details.

    Why is this big news? It means you can now network with and schedule meetings with the 1,000+ people and roughly 400 companies that are already planning to be at the Summit. And those numbers are sure to grow between now and late August.

    If you haven’t registered, what are you waiting for? This is a nearly unparalleled opportunity to get your name and your company’s name in front of the North American steel industry. Register here!

    Don’t forget to update your profile with your bio and headshot. I’ve just logged in and done that. It was quick and painless.

    Your vote counts at SMU

    You’ll use the app at the event itself to keep tabs on the agenda, ask questions of our speakers, and participate in our interactive polls.

    We’ll ask this year, as we do almost every year, where you think steel prices will be a year from now. Don’t worry about getting it wrong! In August 2020, most people predicted that steel prices would still be in the $400s per short ton (st) a year later. However, in August 2021, they were closer to $2,000/st. So, you’ll be looking sharp if you’re off by less than $1,500/st.

    What other poll questions should we ask this year: Who will win the presidential election? Will we see more downstream tariffs? Or something else entirely?

    Let me know at michael@steelmarketupdate.com. We’ll load some of those questions into the app for the first day of the Summit. That’s when my colleague David Schollaert and I will bring those questions to all of you for a live vote.

    There are PLENTY of hotels

    We’ve heard from some of you that hotels are full and rates are high. There is no getting around the fact that hotels are more expensive than they used to be. And with more than 1,000 people attending Steel Summit, rooms on the GICC campus are scarce and come at a premium.

    But there are many hotels at reasonable prices within a few minutes’ drive of the GICC. Below is by no means an exhaustive list. And it comes with no official endorsement from SMU or our parent company CRU. That said, the SMU staff made sure that there were availabilities for Aug. 26-28, the dates of the conference:

    Radisson Hotel Atlanta Airport – 4 minutes by car
    The Westin Atlanta Airport – 4 minutes by car
    Hotel Indigo Atlanta Airport College Park – 5 minutes by car
    Holiday Inn Express Atlanta Airport College Park – 5 minutes by car
    Atlanta Airport Marriott – 5 minutes by car
    Embassy Suites by Hilton Atlanta Airport – 6 minutes by car
    Hilton Garden Inn Atlanta Airport/Millennium Center – 6 minutes by car
    Country Inn Suites by Radisson, Atlanta – 9 minutes by car

    By the way, there should be no shortage of Ubers, Lyfts, and taxis in the area. Remember, we’ll be near Atlanta Hartsfield-Jackson airport, the busiest airport in the world – so getting in and out and finding a place to sleep shouldn’t be a problem.

    See you on Aug. 26-28 in Atlanta!

    All of us at SMU are excited about this year’s Steel Summit. We can’t wait to see so many of you in August at the GICC in Atlanta!

    Michael Cowden

    Read more from Michael Cowden

    Latest in Analysis

    SMU Survey: Mill negotiation rates rise on sheet, fall for plate

    Sheet buyers found mills slightly more negotiable on price this week, while plate buyers thought mills were less flexible on spot price tags, according to our latest survey data. Every two weeks, SMU surveys service center and manufacturer buyers to see whether mills will negotiate on new spot sheet and plate orders. In this week’s survey, 14% of respondents said mills were willing to talk price to secure an order, up three percentage points from two weeks earlier (Figure 1). This is the highest reading since July 8, when the rate stood at 18%.

    SMU flat-rolled market survey results now available

    The results of the latest Steel Market Update (SMU) flat-rolled market survey are now available on our website to all premium members. After logging in, look under the Data tab for Market Reports, and there you will find the Flat-Rolled Survey Results section. Previous survey results are also available on that page. If you need help accessing these results, or if your company would like to have your voice heard in our future surveys, contact smu@crugroup.com.

    supply

    September service center shipments and inventories report

    US service centers’ flat-rolled steel supply increased marginally in September, gaining ground for only the second time all year. Shipping days of supply rose to 45.9 last month, according to SMU data. That figure marks a 3.7% increase from August. September’s result represents a modest gain after inventories hit a five-year low the previous month. But it’s nearly 16% below September 2025 levels. Sheet inventories have averaged ~45 shipping days of supply over the past six months. Flat-rolled inventories represented 2.18 months of supply in September, up 3.7% from August. However, the figure was 15.5% below September 2025. The month-on-month (m/m) gain in inventories resulted from a boost (+21.2%) in intake that was partially offset by a 5% increase in shipments.

    CRU: HR coil futures re-price 2027 forward curve

    CME Group’s hot-rolled coil futures have jumped higher as the loss of a reheating line at a large Southern mill have renewed domestic production issues. At market close on Oct. 12, the Q4'26 futures are now pricing in $1,295 per short ton (st) for HR coil, a month-over-month (m/m) increase of $63/st. For 2027, the forward curve is up $80 /st vs. September, at $1,207/st. For November 2026 through March 2027, prices are at an average just above $1,300/st.