Tag: final thoughts

The world definitely seems like a more dangerous place these days. And, of course, when national security is invoked, the steel industry always plays a key role.

More people expect hot-rolled (HR) coil prices to continue to climb. And most respondents to our last survey predict that prices will hit or even breach the $1,100 per short ton (st) threshold.

If I had to sum it up, I’d say “pain at the pump” is back. AAA says gasoline now averages more than $4 per gallon nationally ($4.08 to be precise) for the first time in for years. Meanwhile, diesel prices average $5.40 per gallon, according to the US Energy Information Administration. That’s up $1.81 per gallon from a year ago.

What impact could the war in Iran have on the steel raw materials supply chain and prices?

Could we see prices continue to inch higher, plateau, and then start to slide back? A lot hinges on whether and how long it takes mills to catch up on orders.

Sheet prices continue to inch higher. And people who once thought hot-rolled coil (HR) prices couldn’t go above $1,000 are now saying $1,100 doesn’t seem out of the question.

Since the Supreme Court ruled the IEEPA (reciprocal) tariffs imposed by the Trump administration were illegal, the subject of refunds has been circulating. A lower court has ruled refunds are due to importers affected by these tariffs, which amounted to an estimated $166 billion.

When nations eye their trade policy these days, are they only seeing tariffs? It might seem that way, especially after reading a presidential executive order or five over the last year. But is the condition spreading?

While decarbonization has fallen out of the headlines a bit, that doesn't mean it's gone away. Tariffs, geopolitical instability, outright war... there has been a lot to write about in the last year.

The US steel market is already characterized by high prices and tight supplies, and I wouldn't be surprised if prices move higher and supplies get even tighter – at least in the short term.

It's been just two weeks since the US and Israel launched a joint attack on Iran. And markets are still in flux as we wade through conflicting messages from the administration on what the goals are when it could be over.

Sometimes it feels like current events are like a fireworks show that got set off all at once by mistake. In all the commotion, it's hard to know where to look... or where to run.

Prices are moving up and lead times moving. And most people expect them to continue to do so for a little while longer, according to our latest survey results. But there is one big wildcard: the Iran war.

Let’s say the going price for HR is around $1,000/st. Want to place a 1,000-ton spot order at that price? Good luck. It probably won’t be easy.

I grew up in Belo Horizonte, the capital of Minas Gerais in southeastern Brazil, surrounded by the Serra do Curral mountains, and a culture steeped in mining and vast iron ore reserves.

U.S. Steel marked its 125th anniversary yesterday. When you look at the massive changes that have occurred in the country over that time, perhaps it puts the current unpredictability in the steel industry into perspective.

Even folks who had been firmly in what I’ll call the “February peak” camp now seem to agree that sheet and plate prices could move higher for longer than they anticipated.

A look at some of the results of our most recent survey with market participant comments.

Waiting for possibly more changes to tariffs.

The extreme cold we've seen over the last month or so might be passing. But it's still stormy out there when it comes to trade issues. The latest trade matter that’s led to more pings than usual on my phone and in my inbox: Ternium México filed a trade petition against imports of cold-rolled (CR) coil from China, Malaysia, and the United States.

I want to say a big thank you to everyone who attended the Tampa Steel Conference. More than 600 people – smashing the record we set last year.

Tales from the sidelines of Tampa Steel Conference 2026.

I’m going to play devil’s advocate for a narrative that has become the consensus for much of the US steel market. You know how it goes. Domestic steel prices will continue to go up despite uneven demand thanks to low supplies stemming in large part from tariffs and limited import competition. That's been the case for months now. Will it continue to be?

SMU's ferrous scrap survey celebrates its one-year anniversary this month.

The Tampa Steel Conference will kick off just a few days after the Super Bowl, and I think it’s fair to say that we could be reacting to market developments in real time – again.

At SMU, we ask the big questions: To be or not to be? Hot band at a grand? On the one hand, whether hot-rolled coil price can or can’t go above $1,000 per short (st) is a silly argument. It’s just a number. On the other hand, round numbers are something that we tend to fixate on. They can be psychologically important to a market – even if they shouldn’t be.

President Donald Trump in a post on Truth Social threatened to impose 100% tariffs on all exports from Canada into the US. It would be boastful (but not entirely inaccurate) to say you read it in SMU and heard it on Aluminum Market Update (AMU) first.

A crossword featuring clues about SMU's Tampa Steel Conference 2026.

Does the level of geopolitical uncertainty get to the point where it impacts not only the stock market but also the broader steel market? Could we see a repeat of Liberation Day, or will the news cycle move on to something else by the end of the week? I don't pretend to know what might happen in Davos. Suffice it to say, it’s going to be a newsy week.

We are officially under 30 days away from SMU's Tampa Steel Conference. And things are really starting to heat up. Well, at least the temperatures in Florida are staying balmy while much of the rest of the country maintains a chill.