Tag: final thoughts

We provide a sneak peek at this month's SMU Scrap Survey, with insights on tariffs, pricing, and demand.

The official beginning of the USMCA review is less than a month away. But negotiations have already started, and steel tariffs could hang in the balance.  

Stronger for longer sentiment remains in the house when it comes to flat-rolled steel prices, according to SMU’s latest steel market survey.

Someone emailed me today to ask the likelihood that Section 232 steel tariffs on Canada and Mexico would be reduced. Unfortunately, that’s way above my paygrade. However, it does highlight a great reason to attend Steel Summit 2026 in August.

Volume, which is usually a big positive for buyers in price negotiations, has arguably become a net negative.

This long weekend, we pay tribute to the sacrifices of the men and women of the US armed forces.

We look at how SMU survey respondents are seeing the effects of Trump's tariffs and the Iran war on business.

SMU released its latest steel market survey results on Friday. The main takeaway: the stronger for longer narrative is still very much in the house.

Inventories are getting dangerously low. (Sheet stocks are at their lowest point since May 2021!) Lead times remain extended. And mills have few spot tons available. (The ‘a’ word – “allocation” – is being kicked around.)

What might be in store for the ferrous scrap market this summer?

The May scrap market in the US seems to be just finishing up its settle as of the writing of this article. Luckily, we have our latest ferrous scrap market survey to give us an insight before we release our prices article next week.

The current rally in sheet prices has lasted more than seven months, something without recent precedent. Unless your definition of recent includes the snapback in demand following the pandemic.

AISI, SMA, and the Canadian Steel Producers Association will each publish a monthly column in the lead-up to the USMCA periodic review.

I haven’t done a deep dive into our sentiment data for a little while. And it’s timely to do so now. Why? Because we’re seeing what I’ll call the inverted yield curve of steel buyers’ sentiment.

I attended the SAFE Summit in Washington, D.C., earlier this week. It was an out-of-this world event – and I mean that quite literally. There were serious discussions around building data centers in space.

Imports of various iron and steelmaking raw materials are eligible. These include pig iron, direct-reduced iron (DRI)/hot-briquetted iron (HBI), iron ore pellets, and ferroalloys, to name a few.

The countdown continues. 123. That’s how many days before Steel Summit 2026 kicks off on Aug. 24 in Atlanta. And it looks like there will be no shortage of things to talk about.

In a Final Thoughts las week, I asked “Got Steel?” And if you’re looking for spot tons in June, the answer still isn’t obvious.

The flat-rolled steel market looks poised for continued gains despite widespread concerns about higher freight costs stemming from the Iran War, according to SMU's latest steel market survey.

Service centers held only 2.24 months of supply (49.3 days of supply) of sheet products in March, according to our latest figures. If you check our archives, you’ll see that's the lowest sheet inventories we’ve seen since June 2021 – which was hardly a bad year for steel.

We look at market participant comments from this month's SMU Ferrous Scrap Survey.

Remember the “Got Milk?” advertising campaign of the 1990s. Maybe we should start a “Got Steel?” campaign. Or maybe “Got Spot Tons?” would be more accurate, if less catchy.

The world definitely seems like a more dangerous place these days. And, of course, when national security is invoked, the steel industry always plays a key role.

More people expect hot-rolled (HR) coil prices to continue to climb. And most respondents to our last survey predict that prices will hit or even breach the $1,100 per short ton (st) threshold.

If I had to sum it up, I’d say “pain at the pump” is back. AAA says gasoline now averages more than $4 per gallon nationally ($4.08 to be precise) for the first time in for years. Meanwhile, diesel prices average $5.40 per gallon, according to the US Energy Information Administration. That’s up $1.81 per gallon from a year ago.

What impact could the war in Iran have on the steel raw materials supply chain and prices?

Could we see prices continue to inch higher, plateau, and then start to slide back? A lot hinges on whether and how long it takes mills to catch up on orders.

Sheet prices continue to inch higher. And people who once thought hot-rolled coil (HR) prices couldn’t go above $1,000 are now saying $1,100 doesn’t seem out of the question.

Since the Supreme Court ruled the IEEPA (reciprocal) tariffs imposed by the Trump administration were illegal, the subject of refunds has been circulating. A lower court has ruled refunds are due to importers affected by these tariffs, which amounted to an estimated $166 billion.

When nations eye their trade policy these days, are they only seeing tariffs? It might seem that way, especially after reading a presidential executive order or five over the last year. But is the condition spreading?