I’m trying to make sure this is not a TL;DR Final Thoughts. As a journalism school professor once told me, ‘No one but your mom reads more than 1,000 words.’ Also, as the old adage goes, a picture is worth a thousand as well. With that in mind, below are a couple of charts that I think go a long way toward explaining how prices and lead times have been relatively stable despite concerns about demand.
It’s another week of big headlines for the world writ large – an expanding war in the Middle East, another potentially catastrophic hurricane – and not much going on in the world of steel prices. “Call me Stevie Wonder, I see nothing.” That’s how one service center executive described the current sheet market. There seems to be almost a competition among some of our Community Chat guests and contributors to outdo each other in flowery ways to say, “
Surprise, surprise. Forget Halloween, the trend this October is all around the unexpected. Known as the “October Surprise,” you never know what is in store for you in the month before a US presidential election. Still, if we pull back the dial back date-wise a little bit, a familiar theme has been added to the mix: kick the can.
Another day, another massive gap between the news and market sentiment. On the news side, we’ve got war in the Middle East. The devastation facing western North Carolina coming into tragic focus. And the outcome of the presidential election remains a coin toss, according to current polling.
There are markets where the headlines and the prices are both crazy. This does not appear to be one of them, at least not yet.
It’s officially fall. And here’s a funny thing about steel prices in the fall over the last few years – they tend to move in the opposite direction of the leaves. SMU’s hot-rolled (HR) coil price averaged $676 per short ton (st) in September 2023. That figure increased to $1,035/st in December 2023, a gain of 53% percent. (You can follow along with our pricing tool.)
Cleveland-Cliffs is seeking $750 per short ton (st) for hot-rolled coil. That’s $20/st above where the steelmaker had been. It’s also $30/st above Nucor, which is at $720/st this week. We've seen prices increase incrementally this week. SMU's HR price, for example, stands at $690/st on average, up $5/st from last week. The questions now are whether a number well above $700/st will stick, whether other mills will follow Cliffs, and whether there is enough demand to support higher prices.
We got a little flack for adjusting our sheet momentum indicators to neutral last week. To be clear, we didn’t adjust them to lower. Part of the reason we moved them to neutral was because there are some unusual cross-currents in the current market. On the news side, you could make a case that there should nowhere to go but up.
We’re starting to see some impacts of the big trade case filed last week against imports of coated flat-rolled steel from 10 nations. Namely, we’ve heard that a range of traders have stopped offering material from Vietnam. An alleged dumping margin of nearly 160% will do that. Especially amid chatter of critical circumstances.
The phrase “political football” has been tossed around a lot lately. (Pun probably intended.) For the humble journalists at SMU who thought the week following Steel Summit would prove a quiet one… the news cycle had other ideas
Day one and two of SMU's Steel Summit 2024 are officially in the books. We covered a lot of ground, and the agenda sure did deliver.
Within the space of a few days, we'll all be leaving on a jet plane. That's not completely true. A couple of SMU staff in the Atlanta area will be driving to Steel Summit 2024. Still, the hour where we kick of conference is quickly approaching. In anticipation, we are providing one of our handy-dandy crosswords in honor of the event.
More than 1,400 of you are now signed to attend Steel Summit – which kicks off next week at the Georgia International Convention Center (GICC) in Atlanta. We are very close to beating last year’s record attendance. So, if you’re on the fence, help us be part of steel history again – register here!
Lead times for hot-rolled coil and plate have moved out a little, according to our latest survey data. Brett Linton has the details here. I think that might reflect some restocking and a host of fall maintenance outages – many of which are happening in September/October. But lead times aren't galloping away like some of the more bullish corners of the market might have hoped. And those for cold-rolled and coated products are largely unchanged.
The countdown is on! In less than two weeks, we’ll kick off the 2024 SMU Steel Summit. This year is poised to be the best attended yet. More than 1,350 delegates have already registered – so we’re within sight of last year’s record number of nearly 1,450. I’m looking forward to learning from executives across […]
I asked in a prior Final Thoughts where some of you thought Nucor’s weekly spot HR price would land. One opinion: $720 per short ton (st). That would allow the Charlotte, N.C.-based steelmaker to one up competitor Cleveland-Cliffs and to re-establish its position as a market leader.
Flat-rolled steel prices have begun inflecting up on the back of mill prices hikes over the past couple of weeks. It’s a notable shift after tags slid downhill for most of the year. (There was a slight bump upward in late March/early April before the decreases resumed.) And now, after reaching levels not seen since […]
SMU has adjusted its sheet momentum indicator from neutral to higher for the first time since early April. The shift comes on the back of price hikes for leading sheet mills Nucor and Cleveland-Cliffs.
It might be the dog days of summer. But it’s been a newsy week for steel. Let’s start on the trade front, where we had a big decision in a case before the Commerce Department about Vietnam’s market status. Ethan Bernard covered the news. Commerce determined that Vietnam remained a “non-market economy,” or NME, based on factors such as government control over private property, labor conditions, and one-party rule. What’s also notable, and which Wiley trade attorney Alan Price points out in a good column on the matter, is that Commerce’s decision cannot be appealed.
What a difference a week makes! SMU has shifted its sheet momentum indicators from “lower” to “neutral”. And we’ll be on the lookout for evidence of higher prices in the weeks ahead.
Nearly 1,200 people have registered for SMU Steel Summit, which is less than a month away now. That means we’re still on pace to meet or exceed last year’s record attendance despite a tough flat-rolled steel market over the last few months. So, a big thank you to everyone who already plans to go for your continued support. If you haven’t booked travel yet, don’t miss out on one of the greatest shows in steel – register here. (You can also check out the latest agenda here.)
SMU has heard from some larger buyers who have stepped back into the market to buy at prices that, if not at a bottom, they assess to be close to one. Is it enough to stretch out lead times and send prices upward again? Or do we continue to scrape along the mid-$600s per short ton (st) as we have been doing for most of the last month?
Cleveland-Cliffs Chairman, President and CEO Lourenco Goncalves had some insightful things to say today about the steel market and about a conference we suspect might be Steel Summit.
They say a picture is worth a thousand words. Well, when you add in some commentary from respected peers in the steel industry to those pictures, that may shoot you up to five thousand words, at least. In that spirit, we’ve added some snapshots from our market survey this week, along with some comments from market participants.
The latest SMU market survey results are now available on our website to all premium members. After logging in at steelmarketupdate.com, visit the pricing and analysis tab and look under the “survey results” section for “latest survey results.” Historical survey results are also available under that selection. If you need help accessing the survey results, or if your […]
I thought we’d have more clarity this week on Section 232, Mexico, and a potential carve-out for steel melted and poured in Brazil. As of right now, the only official comment I have is from the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR).
There are just 40 days left until the 2024 SMU Steel Summit gets underway on Aug. 26 at the Georgia International Convention Center (GICC) in Atlanta. And I’m pleased to announce that it's official now: More than 1,000 people have registered to at attend! Another big development: The desktop version of the networking app for the event has officially launched!
There are a lot of rumors swirling around the steel market over the last couple of weeks. Chief among them was that we might see a price hike after Independence Day. Another concerns a key detail in the new Section 232 agreement with Mexico. Namely, steel imported from Brazil into Mexico. Of particular interest is its potential implication for slabs imported from Brazil, rolled in Mexico, and then exported to the US.
We’ve taken some time to supply you with some handy-dandy production figures for 2024 presented in a unique way.
Flat-rolled steel prices have been largely falling since the beginning of the year. Even after a slight bump in early April when mills tried to halt the downtrend, the decrease resumed.