Tag: final thoughts

A tariff on Brazilian pig iron could cause great upheaval in the market.

What to look out for regarding ferrous scrap ahead of Steel Summit.

We have a special addition to the agenda of this year's SMU Steel Summit that I’m excited to announce today. U.S. Steel President and CEO David Burritt will speak on the opening day of the Summit about the partnership between the iconic Pittsburgh-based steelmaker and Nippon Steel.

Is outer space steel's final frontier?

President Trump’s tariff policies have a lot more in common with a roundabout than you’d think.

The difference: The spat with Turkey was a big deal for steel. This time, the 50% reciprocal tariff for Brazil – if it goes into effect as threatened on Aug.1 – hits everything from coffee and to pig iron. It seems almost custom-built to inflict as much pain as possible on Brazil.

Are we on the cusp of sorting out the tariff situation, or is this merely another round in the bout?

I’m not sure how many different ways I can write that it’s been a quiet market ahead of Independence Day. There are variations on that theme. I’ve heard everything from the ominous “eerily quiet” to "getting better" and even the occasional “blissfully unaware” (because I’m enjoying my vacation).

What's going to be the next big thing in steel?

Based on the amount of ‘out of office’ replies we’ve been receiving and the results of this week’s steel buyers’ survey, those pesky summer doldrums have arrived for the steel industry.

Maybe some of this uncertainty will get ironed out ahead of Liberation Day tariffs resetting higher rates on July 9. But if I had to place a wager, it would be on more drama and last-minute brinksmanship - whether it comes to the Liberation Day tariffs or the various Section 232s that are in the works.

What should you keep your eye on, considering the latest geopolitical events?

Not many people in the North American steel market had direct US involvement in another Middle East conflict on their bingo card. Prices weren't expected to shoot higher unless something unexpected happened. That unexpected something has now happened. And there is talk of oil at $100 per barrel. What does that mean for steel?

Now that the USS/Nippon deal has been completed, what's next?

Getting back to the price increases I mentioned at the top of this article, to what extent are they aimed at raising prices and to what extent are they aimed at stopping the bleeding that was happening in the second half of May, before President Trump announced the 50% tariff?

We just wrapped another Steel 101 Workshop, where you take what you learned in the classroom into the steel mill.

Steel equities and steel futures fell hard after news broke earlier this week that the US and Mexico might reach an agreement that would result in the 50% Section 232 tariff coming off Mexican steel. The sharp declines didn’t make much sense, especially if, as some reports indicate, Mexico might agree to a fixed quota. They didn't make sense even if steel flows between the US and Mexico remain unchanged.

Even before the news about Mexico, I didn’t want to overstate the magnitude of the change in momentum. As far as we could tell, there hadn’t been a frenzy of new ordering following President Trump’s announcement of 50% Section 232 tariffs. But higher tariffs had unquestionably raised prices for imports, which typically provide the floor for domestic pricing. We’d heard, for example, that prices below $800 per short ton for hot-rolled (HR) coil were gone from the domestic market – even for larger buyers.

I think there is an obvious case for sheet and plate prices going higher from here. That’s because, on a very basic level, the floor for flat-rolled steel prices, which is typically provided by imports, is now significantly higher than it was a week ago.

We're about to hit 50% Section 232 steel tariffs. What could happen?

With higher tariff rates on steel and aluminum set to go into effect on Wednesday, June 4, a new round of chaos across the supply chain is likely in store. Expect a significant impact on manufacturers and metal fabricators. But even before the latest round of Trump-tariff whiplash on Friday evening, there was a lot of interesting data coming out of SMU's steel-market survey.

A short tour of key dates in the Nippon/USS deal, and what the future might hold.

I sort of expected big news last Friday and over the long, Memorial Day weekend. Because that's become more the norm than the exception for steel this year. Sure enough, Trump posted on Truth Social on Friday afternoon that he had given his blessing to a “partnership” between Nippon Steel and U.S. Steel. And then over the weekend we had market moving new on tariffs, this time involving the EU.

We're going to have to wait a bit longer for the final outcome of the Nippon/USS deal.

Sure, demand isn’t as good the market had hoped it would be earlier this year. But assuming it doesn’t fall of a cliff, buyers will have to restock at some point. And that might give domestic mills enough leverage to raise prices again.

While I would anticipate market sentiment to pivot and improve if all the questions around tariffs were answered, that still leaves us with a few other factors.

Let's see what SMU survey respondents are saying about Trump's tariffs.

The Tariff Town amusement park ride shows no signs of slowing down.

For those who don’t know, we have a monthly scrap survey. It’s very similar to our industry-leading flat-rolled steel survey. We cover market trends, pricing, and sentiment – which helps us keep our finger on the pulse of the scrap market. One thing we’ve learned lately from our surveys here at SMU: The lack of […]

Cliffs came tantalizing close to buying U.S. Steel in 2023. There were rumors in 2024 that Cliffs might buy NLMK USA before it ultimately purchased Stelco for $2.5 billion in November of last year. Who would have thought that asset sales would have been the focal point of discussion just six months later?