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    Analysis

    July 20, 2025

    Final Thoughts

    Written by Ethan Bernard & Stephen Miller

    This year’s scrap programming at Steel Summit will feature Herb Black, president and CEO of American Iron and Metal (AIM).

    As a Canadian and chief exec of a recycling company based in Montreal, Quebec, these elements would normally be biographical footnotes ahead of the conference. But, surprisingly, post-“Liberation Day,” those facts alone could lead to a spicy conversation on the main stage.

    Ethan Bernard

    Ethan Bernard is managing editor for Steel Market Update. He previously worked for American Metal Market as a copy editor in the New York office for two years, starting in 2008. Later, he copy edited AMM’s monthly magazine on a freelance basis from 2015 until 2017. With experience in financial copywriting and textbook publishing, he holds a BA in Comparative Literature from UC Berkeley, and an MFA in Creative Writing from New York University. He can be reached at ethan@steelmarketupdate.com or 724-759-7871.

    Read more from Ethan Bernard

    Stephen Miller

    Stephen Miller started his career in the scrap metal industry in 1978 at Luria Brothers in Cleveland. Over the last 40-plus years, he has worked in all capacities in the trading business. He has had positions in both domestic and international scrap trading. In addition to scrap, Miller was at the forefront of the pig iron trade and established a pig iron distribution company under the name of Ferrosource, Inc. Most recently, Miller has concentrated on the scrap export market and regularly does consulting for several companies in the industry.

    Read more from Stephen Miller

    Latest in Analysis

    Brazilian pig iron trade with US stuck in doldrums

    The pig iron trade from Brazil into the US has been lackluster over the last month with minimal activity. Many players in the trade thought activity would increase after the International Iron Metallics Assn (IIMA) meeting in Chicago earlier this month, but it has not materialized so far. Part of the reason could be the US scrap buy for October stretched out longer than usual, as buyers and sellers haggled over price. Now that prices settled upward, there may be different ideas on where pig iron prices should settle.

    SMU Survey: Current Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Index up, Future Sentiment flat

    SMU’s Current Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Index ticked up this week, while Future Sentiment remained flat again, according to our latest market survey.  Every two weeks, SMU polls thousands of steel-industry executives, asking them to rate their companies’ chances of success today and also three to six months down the road. We use their responses to calculate our proprietary Current and Future Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices, measures tracked since 2008.

    Fed Beige Book finds stronger steel, machinery demand but rising cost pressure

    Manufacturing activity improved in several Federal Reserve districts, but conditions remained mixed nationwide, according to the Fed’s Oct. 14 Beige Book report. Demand was strongest in steel, machinery, defense-related products, and data center infrastructure. Steel producers in the Cleveland District reported firm spot market demand. Data center, power-generation, defense, and aerospace projects supported orders. Long mill lead times kept customer inventories lean and prices high. Producers also reported higher orders from truck-trailer and light-vehicle manufacturers. International demand for hydrogen vehicle parts increased.

    Final Thoughts: Sheet prices and lead times are climbing, so are inventories and imports

    On the face of it, nothing much changed in the US steel market this week. Lead times continue to extend. Inventories remain lean. And mills can pretty much name their price. Sheet lead times, which extend well into December, remain at the highest levels we’ve seen since 2021. Plate lead times, meanwhile, set a new record. At 11 weeks on average, they’re higher than anything we’ve recorded – including during the boom year of ’21.