Contributor: Ethan Bernard

SMU’s Current Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Index ticked up this week, while Future Sentiment remained flat again, according to our latest market survey.  Every two weeks, SMU polls thousands of steel-industry executives, asking them to rate their companies’ chances of success today and also three to six months down the road. We use their responses to calculate our proprietary Current and Future Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices, measures tracked since 2008.

Sheet buyers found mills slightly more negotiable on price this week, while plate buyers thought mills were less flexible on spot price tags, according to our latest survey data. Every two weeks, SMU surveys service center and manufacturer buyers to see whether mills will negotiate on new spot sheet and plate orders. In this week’s survey, 14% of respondents said mills were willing to talk price to secure an order, up three percentage points from two weeks earlier (Figure 1). This is the highest reading since July 8, when the rate stood at 18%.

The spread between domestic hot-rolled (HR) coil and prime scrap prices widened for the 13th consecutive month in October, hitting another multi-year high. SMU’s hot-rolled (HR) coil price stands at $1,280 per short ton (st) on average this week, up $10/st from last week and a $40/st increase from a month earlier. Meanwhile, busheling averaged $480 per gross ton (gt) in October, rising $12.50/gt higher from September.

CMC’s earnings increased in its fiscal fourth quarter, aided by strong growth in its North America Steel Group. The Irving, Texas-based longs steel producer and metal solutions provider reported net earnings of $212.5 million in its fiscal fourth quarter ended Aug. 31, up 40% from $151.8 million a year earlier. Net sales rose 26% to nearly $2.66 billion in the same comparison. The company said that core EBITDA growth increased 11.3% sequentially in its fiscal Q4 to $393.7 million, led by its North America Steel Group. In that segment, stronger margins and volume growth drove 60 basis points of core EBITDA margin expansion.

Ferrous scrap prices rose in October as the market grew firmer, scrap sources said. “Overall, the main drivers of this October were strong US mill demand and order books, an export market that had risen over the course of September but has now pulled back slightly, and the season,” one source told SMU. He said at this time dealers and mills anticipate that scrap flows will begin to slow down moving into the end of the year.

The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI) expanded in September, according to the most recent report from the Dodge Construction Network (DCN).

The United Steelworkers (USW) union has not yet reached a labor agreement with either U.S. Steel or Cleveland-Cliffs.

Ferrous scrap prices appear to be up in October as trading gets underway, according to preliminary reports from market sources. One source said a Detroit-area buyer purchased shredded and plate and structural (P&S) at up $20 per gross ton (gt), with busheling up $10/gt. A second source said shredded and cut grades look like they'll be up $20, but trading hasn't begun in earnest yet as of Tuesday morning. 

CRU Research Principal speaks about the implication of Mesabi Metallics' proposed steel mill in Iowa.

Iron ore shipments from US ports on the Great Lakes slipped in September from a year earlier, according to the Lake Carriers Association (LCA).

SMU’s Current Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Index fell this week, while Future Sentiment remained flat, according to our latest market survey.  

Startup steelmaker Hertha Metals has secured $133.65 million in its Series A round of funding, including a $65 million equity investment from the US government.

The overall mill negotiation rate ticked up slightly this week, but the overwhelming majority of buyers are still finding mills inflexible on price, according to our latest survey data.

U.S. Steel on Wednesday proposed a new, five-year labor contract to the United Steelworkers (USW) union – one that would run from Sept. 1, 2026, to Sept. 1, 2031, but the USW called the offer a "disappointment."

Steel trade groups applauded the US Trade Representative’s (USTR's) unveiling of "The Milwaukee Framework" to fight global excess steel capacity.

U.S. Steel is investing $28.3 million in its Great Lakes Works in Michigan, with upgrades planned for its pickle line during a 30-day outage starting in October.

President Trump said a trade deal with Canada could come within the next few weeks.

President Trump announced that Mesabi Metallics will build the largest steel plant in the US in the state of Iowa.

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. has confirmed a fatal accident occurred at its Monessen coke facility on Sunday, but said production has not been impacted.

Alter Trading Corp. has purchased the operating assets of Iron and Metals Inc., located in Denver.

Several steel trade organizations have called on President Trump to resist weakening Section 232 steel tariffs.

ArcelorMittal told the government of Ukraine that it is unable to restart operations at its ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih steel plant in a “safe and sustainable manner” following Russian missile attacks.

Mesabi Metallics is considering building a direct-reduction iron (DRI) plant as its Minnesota Iron Range iron ore mine and pellet plant begin startup, according to local reports.

The American Institute of Architects (AIA) said slightly fewer firms reported a decline in billings in August than in July, but the headline index reading remained in contraction.

The Greenbrier Companies received orders for 3,400 new railcars with an aggregate value of ~$600 million during its fiscal fourth quarter ended Aug. 31.

U.S. Steel held a ceremonial groundbreaking on Monday for its new $475-million quench-and-tempering facility at its Fairfield Tubular Operations in Alabama.

The proposed Hyundai-POSCO steel mill in Louisiana has been approved for up to $1.3 billion in bond financing, according to state records and local media reports.

SMU’s Current and Future Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices rose this week, with Current Sentiment hitting a multi-year high, according to our latest market survey.  

Steel Dynamics Inc. (SDI) has guided to higher third-quarter earnings both sequentially and on-year.

United Steelworkers (USW) International President Roxanne Brown urged US and Canadian trade representatives to reach an agreement that puts working families first. Her words come as trade talks between the two nations remain at an impasse, and escalating tensions have led to new tariffs on both sides. “This conflict is hurting jobs. It’s hurting facilities. It’s hurting communities. And it’s creating uncertainty for workers and families in both countries,” Brown said at a press event on Tuesday.