Analysis
July 9, 2026
Ferrous scrap market chatter this month
Written by Ethan Bernard
Every month, SMU polls participants in the ferrous scrap market on a variety of topics. These include prices, business conditions, and tariffs, among others.
This month’s survey came in just before the July trade started to settle. Respondents overwhelmingly thought prices for prime scrap would come in sideways this month at 87%. The remainder thought prices would be up.
Early reports seem to indicate the sideways verdict was correct, but other sources say it may be down. (We’ll be reporting our July prices as soon as the market settles.)
For demand for ferrous scrap, 26% said it was improving, 61% said it was stable, and the remainder thought it was declining.
One respondent provided a general outlook from the scrap side on the US steel picture: “The steel industry is doing very well right now.”
While steel prices have been on a run over the last few months, scrap tags haven’t shown the same bullishness. (As to reasons for this, you can check out SMU’s Stephen Miller’s explanation in our SMU Scrap Sentiment article here.)
Let’s take a look at what else these participants are seeing on pricing. We’ll post the slides, followed by a few comments from respondents.
Want to share your thoughts? Contact david.schollaert@crugroup.com to be included in future market questionnaires. (For Premium subscribers, the full results are available here.)
Where do you think busheling prices will be in July?
“They might even go down.”
“Ferrous scrap price is not following upward steel pricing for months.”
“Pricing increasing due to increases in mill pricing on virgin material.”
“Sideways.”
“Enough scrap in the pipeline.”
“Steel pricing is increasing and demand is stable.”
Where do you think shred prices will be in July?
“Possibly sideways or slightly weaker.”
“Sideways.”
“Demand is stable, but logistics costs have increased.”
“Plenty of tons.”
“Oversupply of shredded scrap. Market should fall.”
Where do you think HMS prices will be in July?
“Export prices are weakening.”
“Sideways from June.”
“Scrap demand is strong and upward pressure on pricing.”
“Not enough export activity.”
Two months from now, how do you see ferrous scrap pricing behaving?
“Industrial flows will lessen.”
