AMU: Semi-fabricated markets aren’t moving together

The shipment data show a clear split between product forms, end markets and stages in the supply chain. Several rolled product categories recorded higher volumes, while extrusions remained flat or declined.

That said, company-specific operating changes and disrupted trade flows make the comparison less direct than the shipment totals initially suggest.

Shipment by product type

Rolled products lead the shipment split

Kaiser Aluminum increased shipments across its rolled product categories as it continued to ramp production following upgrades at its Warrick and Trentwood mills.

Constellium shipped more aerospace, automotive and other transportation-related rolled products, though lower packaging shipments offset those gains at the company level.

Gränges increased Americas shipments into automotive, packaging and climate-control markets.

Extrusion results were softer

Hydro’s North American extrusion shipments increased less than 1% in the second quarter and remained slightly lower through the first half of the year.

Constellium’s automotive and other extrusion shipments were unchanged from a year earlier in the quarter and declined about 2% during the first half.

Kaiser’s automotive extrusion shipments decreased nearly 11% in the quarter and about 9% through June.

The split makes demand for selected rolled products look firmer than extrusions. Yet, the earnings results don’t support a simple conclusion that rolled products demand increased while extrusion demand weakened.

End market splits

Kaiser reported a 10% increase in second-quarter packaging shipments, while aerospace and high-strength shipments increased about 2%. General engineering shipments rose nearly 7%.

Those figures largely reflect Kaiser’s own production recovery. The company has been ramping Warrick after completing a fourth coating line for packaging products and increasing output at Trentwood following work aimed at aerospace and high-strength products. Kaiser’s year-over-year growth partly measures how much additional material its upgraded mills could produce and ship.

Nonetheless, Constellium and Gränges provide additional support for stronger shipment results in certain rolled products.

Constellium’s aerospace rolled product shipments increased 14% in the second quarter, while automotive rolled product shipments rose 15%. Its transportation, industrial, defense and other rolled category increased 26%.

Gränges Americas increased automotive shipments 14% and packaging shipments 16%. Climate-control volume rose 4%, while industrial shipments decreased 2%.

The gains weren’t uniform. Constellium’s packaging shipments declined 9%, which prevents the Kaiser and Gränges increases from supporting a broad conclusion about can sheet or packaging demand.

Auto aluminum split by product type

Automotive results produced one of the clearest divergences in the earnings results.

Constellium increased automotive rolled product shipments 15% during the quarter. Gränges Americas increased automotive volume 14%, though its automotive products primarily serve heat exchangers and other thermal management applications rather than the same uses served by automotive body sheet.

Meanwhile, automotive extrusion shipments declined at Kaiser and remained flat at Constellium.

Kaiser’s automotive extrusion operations are concentrated in North America, which makes its nearly 11% quarterly decline a more direct indication of regional conditions. Constellium operates a wider automotive manufacturing network across Europe and the US, and its reported extrusion shipments combine those markets.

Constellium repeatedly described North American automotive demand as resilient during the company’s earnings call while citing weak conditions in Europe. The company did not separate its regional automotive rolled product and extrusion shipments. Its comments therefore provide regional direction but do not explain which product forms supported North American demand.

Hydro offered a less favorable reading. The company said North American automotive demand remained weak, particularly because of lower electric vehicle production, as it explained its relatively flat regional extrusion shipments.

Nemak’s results add another view from farther downstream in the automotive supply chain. The company is a major producer of aluminum die-cast engine, transmission and structural components in North America.

North American revenue increased only 2.5% to $704 million, while regional EBITDA declined 31% to $61 million. That revenue growth occurred during a quarter when average LME aluminum settlement prices were about 46% higher than a year earlier and the Midwest Premium also increased sharply. Nemak said its aluminum costs are passed through to customers on its most recent earnings call.

As a result, the sales increases cannot be read as evidence of higher physical demand. Compared with much larger revenue increases reported by Kaiser, Gränges, Constellium and Hydro on limited shipment growth, Nemak’s increase appears restrained.

Management attributed the North American earnings decline to $7 million to $10 million in quarterly added operating costs tied to higher-than-expected production on certain programs, particularly high-displacement internal combustion engine (ICE) components and a reversion to a different product mix.

The concentration of added output in selected programs, rather than across the regional business, also suggests Kaiser’s extrusion decline may reflect its customer and platform exposure rather than a matching decline across every aluminum product.

Import shifts

Billet imports fall

US primary billet imports fell 13% year over year to 159,808 metric tons during the first quarter. The decline accelerated during April and May, when imports dropped 52% to 63,972 metric tons.

Imports totaled 223,780 metric tons during the first five months of the year, down 29% from the same period in 2025.

The US-Iran conflict contributed to the second-quarter decline. Attacks affected smelters in the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, while the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted shipping channels.

Still, the Middle East disruption does not explain the full reduction.

Canadian billet imports decreased year over year in January, March, April and May. February was the exception, with imports rising about 3.5%.

Extrusion imports

Imports of downstream extrusion products also argue against treating the market as uniformly weak.

Imports of hollow profiles of aluminum alloys increased 17.3% to 56,809 metric tons during the first five months of the year. They rose from a year earlier in each month of the period.

Conversely, imports of bars, rods and solid profiles decreased 10.5% to 45,931 metric tons. They declined year over year in every month of the period.

The split could reflect differences in end markets. Solid profiles often serve general industrial applications and building and construction. Interestingly, hollow profiles often serve the transportation market, especially the automotive industry.

The increase in hollow profile imports could also represent a shift in where processing occurred. With less primary billet entering the US, buyers may have imported more finished or near-finished shapes instead of importing billet for domestic extrusion.

It’s difficult to determine whether the increase came from higher consumption or import substitution.

Slab imports

The rolling side also faced a steep decline in imported feedstock.

US slab imports decreased 45.1% during the first quarter and 63.9% during April and May. Imports totaled 145,673 metric tons through May, down 53.3% from the same period last year.

That decline exceeded the reduction in billet imports, yet Kaiser, Constellium and Gränges increased shipments in several rolled product categories.

The sources of the two feedstocks differ as well. More than 90% of US slab imports come from Canada. The UAE and Bahrain combined account for only about 5%.

Final thoughts

Customer mix and platform exposure always influence individual earnings results. This quarter, however, those differences appear more pronounced than usual.

Aerospace rolled product shipments increased at Constellium, while Kaiser continued raising output at Trentwood. Automotive sheet and thermal-management products also recorded higher shipments. Packaging increased at Kaiser and Gränges but declined at Constellium.

Yet, Hydro Extruded Solutions’ North American volume remained close to flat. Kaiser’s automotive extrusion shipments declined, while Constellium’s consolidated extrusion deliveries did not record growth.

Meanwhile, Nemak’s stable-volume description was accompanied by limited regional revenue growth and a sharp earnings decline as production shifted among customer programs.

Overall, the clearest patterns appeared in selected rolled products and automotive extrusions.

Nemak’s comments on an operational transition toward ICE-oriented output, Hydro and Constellium’s diverging comments on North American automotive demand, and Kaiser’s increase in automotive rolled product shipments coupled with a decline in automotive extrusion shipments suggest a transition between EV and ICE platforms that may be affected aluminum suppliers differently.

Beyond that, shifting import flows, disrupted billet supply, and deviating hollow and solid extrusion import trends make broader conclusions difficult to support.