There have been some recent developments on the pig iron scene that are starting to reshape the import landscape as we round out 2026., SMU has learned. Here’s what the new import map is starting to look like in Ukraine, India, and Brazil. SMU spoke with sources commenting on each of these regions to find out the situation on the ground.
The situation in Turkey for procuring ferrous scrap for its steel industry is facing some difficult times. As obsolescent scrap flows start to abate in Northern Europe and the US with the onset of the winter and the holiday season, the price of buying scrap for this period is trending upward. The domestic market in the US is expected to rise in November, possibly in December, and definitely in January as the US melt rate shows no signs of lessening. In Europe, the main problem is supply as the Turkish mills have leaned on this region heavily over the last two months rather than sourcing enough higher priced US cargoes. The European suppliers can only sell what is convenient at this point without an increase in price.
Scrap prices will probably rise in the US in November, market participants told SMU. It’s just a question of by how much. The expected gains next month come after an extended settlement period in October. Initial bids of up $10–20 per gross ton (gt) failed to attract enough scrap, and buyers eventually settled for prices up $20–30/gt. And several sources have indicated that a few mills had to pay even more to fill in their needs as the month has gone on.
The pig iron trade from Brazil into the US has been lackluster over the last month with minimal activity. Many players in the trade thought activity would increase after the International Iron Metallics Assn (IIMA) meeting in Chicago earlier this month, but it has not materialized so far. Part of the reason could be the US scrap buy for October stretched out longer than usual, as buyers and sellers haggled over price. Now that prices settled upward, there may be different ideas on where pig iron prices should settle.
The spread between domestic hot-rolled (HR) coil and prime scrap prices widened for the 13th consecutive month in October, hitting another multi-year high. SMU’s hot-rolled (HR) coil price stands at $1,280 per short ton (st) on average this week, up $10/st from last week and a $40/st increase from a month earlier. Meanwhile, busheling averaged $480 per gross ton (gt) in October, rising $12.50/gt higher from September.
Electra, which seeks to make high-purity iron from a process more familiar to base metals, presented at the fall meeting of the International Iron Metallics Association (IIMA) in Chicago last week. The Boulder, Colo.-based company intends to serve iron-consuming markets in both the US and abroad. Steve Beckwith, head of technology commercialization at Electra, said the "clean" iron the company makes could eliminate the need for coal and coke in iron production.
Several mills that bought October scrap early last week are still asking for additional supplies, scrap market participants said. The reason: the mills' initial prices did not attract enough of the raw material, they said. A trading source based in northern Ohio said three mills have contacted his firm seeking offers for additional tons. He said the mills asked for offers even if prices were higher than their original buys last week.
Earlier this week, several steelmakers entered the market with prices for shredded, plate and structural (P&S), and heavy melting steel (HMS) up $20 per gross ton (gt) from September. Prices on prime grades were initially missing but were then reported as up only $10. This occurred in select regions, mainly in the northern tier. As the week went on, expectations were that the rest of the market would follow suit. But this has not been the case.
Philip K. Bell, head of the Steel Manufacturers Association (SMA), delivered the opening presentation at the fall meeting of the International Iron Metallics Association (IIMA) in Chicago this week. He touched on three key themes: Section 232, the Mesabi Metallics mill in Iowa, and the increasing importance of financial experience for leadership positions in steel.
The October market for domestic ferrous scrap is viewed with optimism mainly by participants on the selling side
There has been sustained export activity from the US on both the East and West Coasts. Prices have continued to rise, influenced by several factors, including elevated freight costs and firming markets in exporting countries.
The import market for pig iron may have bottomed out, according to sources in Brazil.
With the recent surge in steel prices and the increased melt rate, the price of ferrous scrap has only marginally improved.
The scrap market for October is looking for direction as some participants on both sides of the furnace are indicating scrap prices are poised for an increase.
SMU’s Current and Future Scrap Sentiment Indices fell in September, according to the latest data from our ferrous scrap survey.
The prices for export scrap from the US East Coast jumped by $5 per metric ton (mt) on recent sales.
The market activity for pig iron imports in the US has been limited recently. However, there have been two cargoes transacted from Brazil as well as continuing imports from India.
Ferrous scrap prices have landed largely sideways this month, sources told SMU. The market quickly settled on Wednesday as 90% of the buying concluded, according to sources in several districts. It appears steelmakers decided there was no point in possibly disrupting flows with their strong forward order book and exceptional spreads between finished steel and current scrap costs.
Ferrous scrap prices could be poised for a sideways move in September as supply and demand are seemingly in reasonable balance, sources told SMU.
SMU welcomed to the stage George Adams for a Fireside Chat at the 2026 SMU Steel Summit on Wednesday.
The export markets on both coasts have not changed very much over this last week.
The Association of American Railroads (AAR) has agreed to rescind the Open Top Loading Rule (OTLR), according to a notice issued by the Recycled Material Association (ReMA).
There has been a resumption in pig iron activity in Brazil on the part of US-based steel mill buyers. Sources have confirmed there were two fresh deals concluded from South Brazil.
August has been quiet thus far, with scrap suppliers working on completing their current orders as signals of a weaker September start to appear.
The pig iron market in the US has been thrown into uncertainty. The culprit? Indian material being imported into the US at prices well under the prevailing Brazilian level.
The spread between domestic hot-rolled coil and prime scrap prices widened again in August, a trend that began nearly a year ago.
There has been renewed activity in the Turkish deep-sea export arena as buyers continue to fill in their September needs.
SMU’s Current Sentiment Index for scrap jumped in August as Future Sentiment saw a sharp rebound, according to the latest data from our ferrous scrap survey.
After a brief delay in regional scrap buying, things are now virtually complete. There was some suspense during the middle of the week that a surprise in scrap prices from the larger mills was in store. Ultimately, however, nothing very dramatic happened.
The US domestic scrap market seemed to get off to a fast start on Tuesday, but things have begun to get drawn out again as mills are still considering August pricing. Several of the larger multi-mill buyers have not officially settled.