Product
October 7, 2025
Written by Stephen Miller
The US domestic scrap market is on the verge of setting prices for October, although wide-scale buying is still in progress.
SMU has heard a mill in Georgia entered the market for shredded at down $10 per gross ton (gt), while holding HMS and P&S sideways. However, it is unclear whether these bids will be accepted by dealers selling to other mills.
The latest tally of active drilling rigs held steady in the US for a fourth straight week, while activity rose further in Canada this week, according to oil and gas rig count data published by Baker Hughes. The US rig count remained unchanged at 603 rigs this week, maintaining a 17-month high. Compared with this time last year, 57 more rigs are in operation today. Canada’s count rose by six to 226 rigs this week, gaining ground for a second consecutive week. Activity is up from the same week of 2025, with 39 more rigs operating today.
In my last column, the HRC futures curve was pricing a sizable premium on near-term tightness while still pointing toward eventual normalization. Since then, that basic story has remained intact, but the shape of the curve has shifted meaningfully. Rather than simply moving higher and pushing the peak out by another month, as has largely been the pattern throughout this rally, the curve is now pricing a more pronounced and prolonged period of tightness, while the long end has remained relatively anchored, which previously had also been lifted with the rest of the curve.
The majority of steel buyers responding to our latest market survey reported that mills continue to hold a firm grip on prices. The share of buyers reporting that mills were negotiable fell this week to the lowest rate seen in over five years. Every two weeks, SMU surveys service center and manufacturer buyers asking if mills are negotiable on new spot sheet and plate orders. In this week’s survey, just 3% of respondents said mills were willing to talk price to secure an order (Figure 1). This is down 11 percentage points from our mid-October survey.
There have been some recent developments on the pig iron scene that are starting to reshape the import landscape as we round out 2026., SMU has learned. Here’s what the new import map is starting to look like in Ukraine, India, and Brazil. SMU spoke with sources commenting on each of these regions to find out the situation on the ground.
The results of the latest Steel Market Update (SMU) flat-rolled market survey are now available on our website to all premium members. After logging in, look under the Data tab for Market Reports, and there you will find the Flat-Rolled Survey Results section. Previous survey results are also available on that page. If you need help accessing these results, or if your company would like to have your voice heard in our future surveys, contact smu@crugroup.com.