Product
September 18, 2025
Written by Stephen Miller
There are divergent views among market participants about the direction of scrap prices as we head into October.
Opinions are ranging from sideways to marginally down to much more weakness. Much of the difference in views could be regionally based. But nobody is predicting any upward movement.
The latest tally of active drilling rigs held steady in the US and slowed in Canada this week, according to oil and gas rig count data published by Baker Hughes. The US rig count remained unchanged at 603 rigs this week, maintaining a 17-month high. Compared to this time last year, there are 55 more rigs in operation today. Canada’s count decreased by five to 217 rigs this week, slowing for the first time in four weeks. Still, activity is up compared to the same week of 2025, with 19 more rigs operating today.
The pig iron trade from Brazil into the US has been lackluster over the last month with minimal activity. Many players in the trade thought activity would increase after the International Iron Metallics Assn (IIMA) meeting in Chicago earlier this month, but it has not materialized so far. Part of the reason could be the US scrap buy for October stretched out longer than usual, as buyers and sellers haggled over price. Now that prices settled upward, there may be different ideas on where pig iron prices should settle.
Nucor Plate Group said it will increase its fuel surcharge to $40 per short ton (st) next month, effective for all shipments beginning Nov. 1. The Charlotte, N.C.-based steelmaker first said in April that the fuel surcharge was necessary to address rising costs, initially setting the surcharge at $10/st on April 16. The company had previously maintained the $10/st surcharge rate for four straight months through Aug. 17. But it has since doubled its rate in back-to-back months—increasing its surcharge to $20/st in September, followed by its Oct. 15 notice to $40/st. “We remain committed to providing reliable service and transparency as we adapt to changing market dynamics,” Nucor said in a letter to customers on Thursday evening. Nucor announces the surcharge amount on or about the 15th of each month for shipments beginning the following month.
Lead times for sheet and plate continued to extend amid a domestic supply squeeze, according to the latest SMU steel market survey data. Average lead times stretch into mid- or late December, and those at some mills now extend into 2027. Lead times for all sheet products except Galvalume stand at their highest point since the post-covid demand snapback in 2021. Lead times for plate are now even higher than their 2021 peak.
US service centers’ flat-rolled steel supply increased marginally in September, gaining ground for only the second time all year. Shipping days of supply rose to 45.9 last month, according to SMU data. That figure marks a 3.7% increase from August. September’s result represents a modest gain after inventories hit a five-year low the previous month. But it’s nearly 16% below September 2025 levels. Sheet inventories have averaged ~45 shipping days of supply over the past six months. Flat-rolled inventories represented 2.18 months of supply in September, up 3.7% from August. However, the figure was 15.5% below September 2025. The month-on-month (m/m) gain in inventories resulted from a boost (+21.2%) in intake that was partially offset by a 5% increase in shipments.