Some world-changing events happen in an instant. Others take many twists and turns. The outcome remains unknowable at every phase. That is, until you finally arrive at the end of the roller coaster, the safety bar lifts up, and you stagger off the ride. It appears such is the case with Japan’s Nippon’s Steel Corp.’s (NSC’s) proposed $14.9-billion buy of Pittsburgh-based U.S. Steel. And the ride ain't over yet.
We never eat chicken on New Year’s Day. My Irish-Catholic grandmother thought it was bad luck – because chickens scratch backward. And one should start the year looking forward. But it’s hard to avoid the fact that we’re carrying a lot 2024 issues (and even 2023 ones) forward into 2025. That’s not all bad. We’re starting 2025 with SMU’s hot-rolled coil price at $675/per short ton (st). That’s $370/st lower than $1045/st at the outset of 2023, according to our interactive pricing tool. I think we can safely say that a decline of that magnitude won’t happen in 2025.
And just like that, we’re wrapping up the last SMU newsletter of 2024. We’re closing out our 19th year and looking with wide-eyed anticipation to what 2025 will bring.
SMU looks back at stories from Decembers past, one, five, 10, and 100 years ago.
It's that time of year again. You know, that time when people wonder if those things are drones in New Jersey or if the aliens are ready to come onto the stage just in time for Inauguration Day. What will that do for steel price volatility? In any case, the SMU team finds itself in Pittsburgh this week.
The Community Chat last Wednesday with ITR economist Taylor St. Germain is worth listening to if you couldn’t tune in live. You can find the replay and Taylor’s slide deck here. You can also find SMU reporter Stephanie Ritenbaugh’s writeup of the webinar here. Taylor is Alan Beaulieu’s protégé at ITR. Many of you know Alan from his talks at SMU Steel Summit. I found Taylor’s analysis just as insightful as Alan’s.
It’s been another week of torrid speculation when it comes Trump and tariffs. And another week of mostly flat price movement when it comes to steel sheet and plate. As far as Trump and tariffs go, I think I might have lost track. We've potentially got 10% blanket tariffs on imports from China, 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, 100% tariffs on the BRICs, and 200% on Caterpillar. Canada might be the 51st state. Mexico could be the 52nd state. But all can be resolved if you stop by Mar-a-Lago and kiss the ring?
As my colleague Ethan Bernard noted in our most recent Final Thoughts, I don’t think many of us thought uncertainty would be mounting four weeks out from 2025. If anything, the general theme post-Steel Summit and into Q4 was that election night would be the turning point. And whatever had been keeping the steel market from building would finally get the jump-start it needed.
Never have I been more certain in declaring that those in the steel industry are less certain now than they thought they’d be at this point before the election.
“Trump took to Twitter.” That was a familiar story lead in Trump 1.0. Now it’s “Trump took to Truth Social (or X)." The latest example: President-elect Donald Trump on Monday evening said he was “totally against” U.S. Steel being acquired by Nippon Steel in a post on Truth Social.
And so it begins (again). Not to be outdone by Thanksgiving, President-elect Donald Trump has threatened to impose tariffs of 25% on all imports from Canada and Mexico. He also threatened to hit all imports from China with tariffs of 10% - an amount that would come on top of a boatload of pre-existing duties and tariffs.
“We’ll always have Paris,” as the famous line in Casablanca goes. And this month, the global steel industry did as well. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Steel Committee met in the City of Lights earlier this month. There was also a meeting of the Global Forum addressing excess steel capacity.
It’s once again A Tale of Two Cities in the steel market. Some are almost euphoric about Trump’s victory. Others, some rather bearish, are more focused on the day-to-day market between now and Inauguration Day on Jan. 20.
t this point in the game I think what we can say about Nippon Steel’s proposed buy of Pittsburgh-based U.S. Steel is that it will go through, it won’t go through, or the outcome will be something new and completely unexpected. Then again, I’m probably still missing a few options.
President-elect Donald Trump continues to send shockwaves through the political establishment (again). And steel markets and ferrous scrap markets continue to be, well, anything but shocking. As the French writer Jean-Baptiste Alphonse Karr wrote in 1849, "The more things change, the more they stay the same." (I thought the quote might have been Yankees catcher Yogi Berra in 1949. Google taught me something new today.)
President-elect Donald Trump will officially retake the White House on Jan. 20. I’ve been getting questions about how his administration’s policies might reshape the steel industry and domestic manufacturing. I covered the tumult and norm busting of Trump's first term: Section 232, Section 301, USMCA - and that's just on the trade policy side of things. It's safe to say that we'll have no shortage of news in 2025 when it comes to trade and tariffs.
Another presidential election cycle has come to an end. If you’re anything like me, part of you is just happy you no longer need to unsubscribe or “text STOP to opt-out” from the onslaught of political text messages this cycle produced.
With the US presidential election decided, ‘wait and see’ has quickly turned into ‘we’re about to find out.’ Following Donald Trump’s victory, I had a chance to sit down with Kevin Dempsey, president and CEO of the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI). He gave his thoughts on what he thought we might see in Trump’s second term in office, and what it means for steel.
Votes were still being counted when this column posted on Tuesday evening. And I’d be surprised if we know who the president will be by the time some of you are reading it on Wednesday morning.
Next week promises to be a big week for the country. Could even top the World Series (congrats to the Dodgers). As we all hold our breath to see what happens next, it’s a good time to reflect.
Nucor said it is seeking $740 per short ton (st) for hot-rolled (HR) coil this week, up $20/st from last week. USS, meanwhile, is shooting for up $30/st for sheet products in general. (USS did not announce a target price for HR.)
We all know the American news cycle moves pretty fast. Viral today, cached tomorrow. So it is with the US presidential election on Tuesday, Nov. 5. People have election fatigue. They've moved on to other things like planning holiday parties, debating Super Bowl hopefuls, or even starting to look forward to our Tampa Steel Conference in February.
U.S. Steel plans to increase sheet prices by at least $30 per short ton (st). That's something we haven't seen for a while.
SMU's hot-rolled (HR) coil price slipped this week to $685 per short ton (st) on average. We also adjusted our sheet momentum indicators to lower for the first time since July.
When a mapmaker constructs a map, it’s always to the contours of the land. Or sea. That is, the mapmaker doesn’t say, “Look, these rocks really don’t belong here, so I’m not going to include them in the harbor map.” Uncharted rocks, sink ships (along with loose lips).
We had an October surprise here at SMU on Wednesday. I was working from the CRU office in Pittsburgh, and the internet connection briefly went out. As luck would have it, that happened smack in the middle of a live Community Chat webinar. Fortunately, my colleague David Schollaert stepped in, Zekelman Industries CEO Barry Zekelman rolled with the punches – and the show went on. Could there be any more October surprises in store for us and for the steel market?
Everybody has an opinion about politics these days. More importantly for our readers, though, every business has a bottom line. A popular question in our most recent steel buyers survey asked how uncertainty around the upcoming US presidential election could affect that line.
I’m trying to make sure this is not a TL;DR Final Thoughts. As a journalism school professor once told me, ‘No one but your mom reads more than 1,000 words.’ Also, as the old adage goes, a picture is worth a thousand as well. With that in mind, below are a couple of charts that I think go a long way toward explaining how prices and lead times have been relatively stable despite concerns about demand.
It’s another week of big headlines for the world writ large – an expanding war in the Middle East, another potentially catastrophic hurricane – and not much going on in the world of steel prices. “Call me Stevie Wonder, I see nothing.” That’s how one service center executive described the current sheet market. There seems to be almost a competition among some of our Community Chat guests and contributors to outdo each other in flowery ways to say, “
Surprise, surprise. Forget Halloween, the trend this October is all around the unexpected. Known as the “October Surprise,” you never know what is in store for you in the month before a US presidential election. Still, if we pull back the dial back date-wise a little bit, a familiar theme has been added to the mix: kick the can.