Final Thoughts
October 9, 2026
Written by Michael Cowden
If you’re a Seinfeld fan, you probably remember the classic episode about “The Soup Nazi.” (If you’re not, check out this clip.)
Spoiler alert: George Costanza tries to negotiate a lower price for bread from a Manhattan shop famous for its soup. He ends up not only with no bread but also with no soup: “No soup for you!”
SMU’s latest steel market survey is out, and it paints a picture of a market we’re all familiar with now: long lead times, mills firmly in control of pricing, and an expectation that US sheet prices will remain stronger for longer, despite increased interest in imports.
With the recent surge in steel prices and the increased melt rate, the price of ferrous scrap has only marginally improved.
The rally in steel sheet prices is officially a year old. We haven’t seen a yearlong price rally since 2021, when a snapback in demand following the early days of the pandemic resulted in one of the biggest steel market booms since World War II.
If the question is, “Brother, can you spare a spot ton?” The answer from many mills might be “No.” Or perhaps, in the case of hot-rolled (HR) coil, “Do you have $1,300 per ton?”