SMU Community Chat: Tanners sees tags tapering off in second half
Wells Fargo's Timna Tanners thinks the steel price rally will be falling off as we get further into the second half.
Wells Fargo's Timna Tanners thinks the steel price rally will be falling off as we get further into the second half.
Nucor held its consumer spot price (CSP) for hot-rolled (HR) coil at $1,130 per short ton (st) for the week of June 29. The sideways move is the first of its kind since Jan. 21.
Some hot-rolled coil buyers expect continued incremental price increases from domestic mills. Others expect steeper increases, even if it risks inviting imports.
Cold-rolled coil prices moved higher in the US this week, as offshore prices trended lower. Imports are, as a result, increasingly more competitive, even with the 50% Section 232 tariff.
What comes next? Do prices plateau and then dip in late Q3/Q4 – which is what we saw in 2021? Or do they continue to rise into 2027?
Steel buyers negotiation rates remain at or near historic lows across most sheet and plate products.
Participants in the domestic plate market anticipate incoming price notifications before the end of the month, SMU learned in recent conversations.
Galvanized sheet buyers and distributors report that strong demand and constrained supply persist, exerting upward pressure on prices.
US sheet prices continue to move higher on extremely limited spot availability, solid demand, and extended lead times.
CRU: Tight market balance will drive up US steel plate prices, while weak demand and lower CBAM costs will pull European prices down. Weather risks will shape Asian markets, from Chinese rain disruptions to uneven Indian monsoons.
Nucor announced on Monday, June 22, that its consumer spot price (CSP) for hot-rolled coil will be $1,130 per short ton for the week, up $5/st from last week.
Hot-rolled coil market participants report little disruption to their contact volumes, finding timely spot HR proved less straightforward, some sources told SMU.
Some domestic plate market participants recently voiced concerns that current market conditions will impact fabrication and manufacturing, which rely on steady product supply.
Earlier this week, SMU polled steel buyers on an array of topics, ranging from prices, demand, and inventories to tariffs, imports, and evolving market conditions.
Manufacturing activity in New York state increased modestly in June, easing after posting strong growth the month prior, according to the Empire State Manufacturing Survey.
SMU’s average price for domestic HR was $1,130 per short ton (st) this week, $15/st higher week over week (w/w). In offshore markets last week, prices were largely down, following a trend seen since late April.
SMU’s Steel Demand Index ticked back up from late May, remaining in elevated territory, according to mid-June indicators.
May was the fifth consecutive month of expansion for the US manufacturing sector, according to the most recent Institute for Supply Management (ISM) report.
SMU’s sheet price indices increased further this week, while plate held steady, all at multi-year highs.
Nucor Plate Group will maintain its previously announced fuel surcharge of $10 per short ton for next month, effective on all shipments beginning July 1.
Nucor announced on Monday, June 15, that its consumer spot price (CSP) for hot-rolled coil will be $1,125 per short ton (st) for the week, up $10/st from last week.
Spot market participants recently told SMU they foresee additional plate price rises for domestically made products.
The World Cup only comes around every four years. So let's take a walk down memory lane to see where the steel market stood four years ago.
Some domestic spot market buyers say they're seeking imported hot-rolled (HR) coils.
This week we saw continued low negotiation rates across all products, with cold rolled and plate the least negotiable and galvanized the most.
The price gap between US hot-rolled coil (HR) and landed offshore product continues to narrow, as stateside prices are now, on average, carrying a premium over imports. Domestic tags are still outpacing imported hot band as pricing dynamics diverge.
Atlas Tube on Monday announced price increases for mechanical, HSS, and piling products.
Nucor announced on Monday, June 8, that its consumer spot price (CSP) for hot-rolled coil will be $1,115 per short ton (st) for the week, up $10/st from last week.
Nucor on Friday announced plans to increase plate prices by $60 per short ton (st).
Steel market chatter this week: Buyers predict prices to continue rising from here, report steady to improving demand, and most see tariffs as unhelpful.