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    Final Thoughts

    Michael Cowden, SMU Team

    Final Thoughts: Steel prices soar despite stock market turmoil, Republican shellacking

    Written by Michael Cowden


    Republicans got shellacked in the midterms on Tuesday. Equities got shellacked on Wall St. on Thursday. And steel prices continued upward as if nothing had happened.

    I asked a couple of weeks ago whether the supply squeeze we’re seeing now is more intense than what we saw in 2021. It’s becoming increasingly clear that it is by most metrics, with the notable exception of price.

    Michael Cowden

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    Final Thoughts: Longer waits, higher stakes

    We’re in rarefied air for the US domestic steel industry. Mill lead times are approaching or even exceeding (in the case of plate) records set in 2021. Prices, meanwhile, are on an epic run—13 months and counting. Availability, not price, is the largest hurdle buyers are facing. And market participants think the shortage could stay around for a while. Incoming imports and mills catching up after fall maintenance could ease the squeeze. Even so, most sources do not expect meaningful relief until 2027.

    Final Thoughts: Is the steel market now tighter than in 2021?

    "Now, the problem is no longer the price. The problem is having access to steel." That would have made a good lead. But I can’t take credit for it. Those (very quotable) words are from Cleveland-Cliffs Chairman and CEO Lourenco Goncalves during the steelmaker’s quarterly earnings conference call on Monday. For a while, I thought the shortages we'd been hearing about might be mostly a problem for small- and mid-sized buyers. But we’re seeing even some of the biggest steel buyers talking openly about supply problems.