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    Analysis

    Final Thoughts

    Written by Ethan Bernard & Stephen Miller


    We’ve all received the email sign-off: Thank you for your attention to this matter. Just a bit of corporate formality. A way to grease the wheels in inter-office communication. Unless you’re President Donald J. Trump talking on your Truth Social account. In that case, the stock phrase may be a warning to both Israel and Iran to respect a newly announced ceasefire.

    But is there a ceasefire? We hesitate to write anything at this point because the geopolitical situation in the Middle East is about as clear as the hot-rolled coil market in North America. Heck, it might be giving the tariff situation a run for its money in terms of not knowing which way is up.

    Ethan Bernard

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    Stephen Miller

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    Sheet prices soared this week as market participants increasingly predict that the strong market characterizing 2026 will stretch well into 2027. And with extremely limited spot availability, mills that have spot tons to sell are charging a significant premium, they said. The result: Sheet prices saw their highest week-over-week gains since March 2025, according to SMU's pricing records. That's when President Trump shocked the market by expanding Section 232 tariffs to cover traditional US allies such as Canada, Mexico, and the EU.

    Ferrous scrap prices seen rising in November

    Most SMU scrap sources are predicting a stronger scrap market for November. The increase in prices is generally thought be $20-30 per gross ton (gt) in most districts. However, there are differences of opinion about the upcoming price settlements. SMU spoke with a trading source in the Great Lakes region who told us mills in the Eastern Ohio and Western Pennsylvania regions are short on scrap. At least one buyer is offering to buy scrap at a $30/gt increase from October levels. He said most dealers have elected to wait to see where things settle before making commitments.

    SMU Community Chat: Data centers strong in uneven construction market, Simonson says

    Construction has been an uneven market over the last year, but data centers have been a bright spot. Ken Simonson, chief economist for the Associated General Contractors of America (AGC) sat down with SMU Editor-in-Chief Michael Cowden last week for a Community Chat. In a far-ranging conversation, Simonson spoke on the current state of construction and wider issues in the economy. (For SMU Premium subscribers, you can watch replay of the entire interview here.)