Tag: Mexico

Could the US and Mexico end up with a tariff-rate quota system?

The actions, which includes tariffs, are necessary to protect the Canadian market from global overcapacity. They are also needed because other countries have redirected material to Canada as a result of higher US tariffs, Carney said.

Could we see an abrupt shift now that oil prices have spiked higher? Will we see a rebound in the rig count? Will this create a snap-loading effect (think waterski rope), where the industry suddenly does a 180-degree turn? If so, will that bring with it increased demand for steel products used by the energy industry?

Getting back to the price increases I mentioned at the top of this article, to what extent are they aimed at raising prices and to what extent are they aimed at stopping the bleeding that was happening in the second half of May, before President Trump announced the 50% tariff?

The Mexican government shut down two plants and warehouses operated by US-based LAU Industries.

Steel market participants learned that negotiations between the US and Mexico include discussions about Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum despite President Trump’s June 3 proclamation increasing the tariffs from 25% to 50% for all steel and aluminum imports—except for those from the UK. 

Steel equities and steel futures fell hard after news broke earlier this week that the US and Mexico might reach an agreement that would result in the 50% Section 232 tariff coming off Mexican steel. The sharp declines didn’t make much sense, especially if, as some reports indicate, Mexico might agree to a fixed quota. They didn't make sense even if steel flows between the US and Mexico remain unchanged.

Even before the news about Mexico, I didn’t want to overstate the magnitude of the change in momentum. As far as we could tell, there hadn’t been a frenzy of new ordering following President Trump’s announcement of 50% Section 232 tariffs. But higher tariffs had unquestionably raised prices for imports, which typically provide the floor for domestic pricing. We’d heard, for example, that prices below $800 per short ton for hot-rolled (HR) coil were gone from the domestic market – even for larger buyers.

US steel exports totaled 579,000 short tons (st) in April, according to US Department of Commerce data. That's the lowest monthly volume recorded since July 2020.

The volume of steel exported from the US marginally increased from February to March, according to the latest US Department of Commerce figures. Although up month over month (m/m), export levels have generally trended downward over the past year.  

The Mexican government aims to transform Manzanillo into the largest seaport in Latin America, capable of processing some 10 million TEU (20-foot equivalent units) per year by 2030. It is already Mexico's largest port and the third largest in Latin America, handling nearly 4 million 20-foot containers in 2024.

US steel imports rebounded from February to March, rising to the second-highest monthly rate witnessed in the past ten months, according to final data recently released by the US Commerce Department. April license data shows that gain has likely been erased, with trade falling to the lowest rate of the year and several product categories hitting multi-year lows.

Maximo Vedoya was awarded in recognition of Ternium’s expansion project in Pesquería, Mexico, and Ternium’s efforts to decarbonize steelmaking.

The steelmaker now expects the new steel slab mill in Pesquería will begin operations by Q4’26.

Container shipping lines have sharply increased blank sailings on Transpacific routes in response to escalating trade tensions between the US and China.

After a hard drop in December — the worst since July 2021 — assembly numbers have climbed three months in a row. Sentiment remains tempered, though.

A counterintuitive aspect of the 25% tariffs on autos is these percentages are measured in value, not by weight or part count. That means a few costly imported parts can outweigh dozens of cheaper local ones – and vice versa.

The volume of steel exported from the US declined in February, reversing January’s surge, according to the latest US Department of Commerce figures. This comes just two months after export levels had fallen to a two-year low.

Victor Cairo, head of Mexico’s steel sector body Canacero and CEO of ArcelorMittal Mexico, says he is confident negotiations between the Mexican and US governments planned for April 2 will lead to the creation of a regional block to substitute imports, especially from Asia.

Imposing country-of-origin duties plus the upwardly revised Section 232 duties would create an untenable value for Midwest P1020. Modeling the extreme outcome of 25% country-of-origin tariffs plus 25% Section 232 tariffs could put Midwest physical premiums as high as $0.65 per pound. No, that is not a typo: $0.65 per pound! Primary aluminum supply chains would rotate from importing Canadian aluminum to importing it from India, the Middle East, or other very distant origins. That is worrisome for manufacturers.

"We urge you to resist any requests for exceptions or exclusions and to continue standing strong on behalf of American steel," the companies wrote.

The Trump 1.0 tariffs appeared to have little positive effect on the US manufacturing, partly because they hurt export competitiveness.

An inventory valuation of the assets of Altos Hornos de Mexico SA (AHMSA) has been completed. Local reports suggest an auction for the assets of the bankrupt steel company could come as soon as the end of this month.

The latest on the trade war

Mexico has launched an anti-dumping investigation into imports of hot-rolled steel from China and Vietnam.

On 4 March, new 25% blanket tariffs across all products exported to the USA from Canada and Mexico are now in effect. The only exception is Canadian energy products, which will be assessed a 10% tariff.

Remember infrastructure week in Trump 1.0? It became a running joke. Because it was almost always derailed by whatever the scandal of the day was. In Trump 2.0, we've got tariff week. And unlike infrastructure week, tariff week is no joke.

President Trump reaffirmed Monday afternoon that his 25% universal tariff on all imports from Canada and Mexico would take effect on Tuesday. “Tomorrow – tariffs 25% on Canada and 25% on Mexico. And that’ll start,” Trump told reporters Monday, according to an Associated Press report. “They’re going to have to have a tariff.”

The main impact of tariffs on scrap prices would be felt in Northern states - and especially among those along the Canadian border. Many steelmakers in this area receive a substantial portion of their monthly scrap charge from Canadian processors. Much of it is prime scrap used by hot-rolled (HR) coil producers.

That’s not to say Section 232 shouldn’t be tightened up. Or that certain trade practices – even among our traditional allies – weren’t problematic. But when it comes to the reboot of Section 232, I do wonder whether there will be some unintended consequences.