Final Thoughts

Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
September 21, 2015
Demand (or the lack thereof) seems to be the real culprit affecting the steel market and prices at this moment. I spoke with one of the larger service centers this afternoon and asked: would imports be reduced enough to impact U.S. supply and trigger a price spike? I asked what were the chances that the market would turn in 2016 and steel all of a sudden get tight?
The response I got was, “15% chance. Soft demand and over supply domestically – not to mention the international market will keep pressure on the market. Small pockets of volatility can be expected.” They went on to say, “If oil doesn’t come back – what drives demand?”
For those of you who attended our Steel Summit Conference in Atlanta at the beginning of September,Timna Tanners of Bank of America Merrill Lynch Research adjusted her hot rolled coil prognostication for 2016. Her new numbers are: 1Q 2016 HRC = $505 per ton, 2Q 2016 = $510 per ton, 3Q 2016 = $525 per ton and 4Q 2016 = $500 per ton. Average for the year = $510 per ton.
I will keep my comments short tonight.
As always your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, Publisher

John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in Final Thoughts

Final Thoughts: AMU brings the news
Usually, I write about steel in this column because, well, we’re Steel Market Update. But before I get to steel, I want to give a shoutout to my colleagues at Aluminum Market Update (AMU) – SMU’s new sister publication.

Final Thoughts
If I could change something, it’d be this: Political news would get more boring. And news about steel prices and steel demand would get a little more exciting.

Final Thoughts: Survey says edition
SMU’s latest survey results indicate that steel market participants think sheet prices are at or near a bottom. But most also think there is limited upside once they inflect higher.

Final Thoughts
A recent IIMA meeting in Brazil shows how the US and much of the rest of the world are operating in parallel realities.

Final Thoughts
We moved our pricing momentum indicators from “lower” to “neutral” for all sheet products this week. For those keeping score, we had been at “lower” for six weeks. And I know some of you think we should have been there for even longer.