SMU Data and Models
Steel Mill Lead Times: Still One Week Shorter than Year Ago Levels
Written by John Packard
October 8, 2015
Flat rolled steel mill lead times remain historically short as the domestic mills struggle to keep their mills full. Based on the results from this week’s flat rolled steel market analysis (survey) we are seeing lead times at least one week shorter than this time last year on all products with the exception of Galvalume.
Hot rolled lead times remained about the same as what has been reported over the last couple of months. The average lead time based on our respondents was 3.19 weeks compared to 3.04 weeks (statistically insignificant) two weeks ago and 3.11 weeks at the beginning of September.
Cold rolled lead times dropped by about a half a week from 5.65 weeks two weeks ago down to 4.95 weeks this week. One year ago CR lead times were 6.04 weeks.
Galvanized lead times dropped from 5.83 weeks two weeks ago to 5.32 weeks this week. One year ago GI lead times were averaging 6.05 weeks according to those responding to our survey.
Galvalume lead times dropped one half week compared to two weeks ago but are only a third of a week less than one year ago.
Here is what lead times have averaged over the past year based on the results of SMU flat rolled steel market survey.
To see an interactive history of our Steel Mill Lead Time data, visit our website here.
John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in SMU Data and Models
Steelmaking raw material costs mixed through May
According to our latest analysis, prices for four of the seven steelmaking raw materials we track increased from April to May. However, select materials saw a collective 1% decline month over month and are down 4% compared to three months ago.
SMU Survey: Buyers’ Sentiment tumbles as caution increases
SMU’s Buyers’ Sentiment Indices resumed their downward trend this week, erasing the modest recovery seen two weeks ago.
Service centers: Mill orders down further in April
SMU’s Mill Order Index (MOI) declined for a second straight month in April after repeated gains at the start of the year, according to our latest service center inventories data.
SMU Survey: Mill lead times edge lower
Sheet and plate lead times declined across the board this week, according to buyers responding to the latest SMU market survey. While our lead time ranges were unchanged compared to mid-April levels, average production times for each steel product we measure have declined from they were two weeks ago.
SMU Survey: Most buyers say price negotiations back on the table
Domestic mills are largely negotiable on spot prices, according to the majority of steel buyers responding to our latest market survey.