SMU Data and Models

SMU HR Price MoMo Index: 13th Week in Negative Territory
Written by Brett Linton
November 5, 2015
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Price MoMo Index for hot rolled steel in the United States was negative (indicating lower prices) for the 13th consecutive week. MoMo, a trailing indicator, is measured as a percentage and shows the relation of the current U.S. hot rolled coil (HRC) price movements against the previous 12-week average spot price as recorded by Steel Market Update. A positive MoMo index indicates hot rolled steel prices are increasing, while a negative index indicates a decline in prices.
MoMo should not be confused with the SMU Price Momentum Indicator which is a forward looking indicator and is currently pointing toward neutral pricing over the next 30 to 60 days.
MoMo was measured at -8.15 percent this week, meaning that the current HRC price is lower than the average price over the last 12 weeks.
The change in MoMo can be a useful indicator in depicting the severity of price movements and evaluating the directional trend for flat rolled steel prices. The week-over-week change in MoMo was +1.24 percent, following a change of -2.14 percent last week. This indicates that the decline in hot rolled prices has began to slow down over previous week.
To get a wider sense of the change in the MoMo Index, we calculate a 3-week average change. The 3-week average change in the MoMo Index is -0.35 percent, following a change of -1.20 percent the week before. This shows that the movement in hot rolled prices is also declining at a slower rate when viewed over a longer period.
The graph below demonstrates the relationship between the SMU hot rolled coil price, the SMU Price MoMo Index, and the three week moving average change in the MoMo Index. Initially published in our Tuesday evening issue, the SMU HRC price range for this week is $370-$410 per ton with an average price of $390, unchanged from last week.

Brett Linton
Read more from Brett LintonLatest in SMU Data and Models

SMU Survey: Sheet lead times ease further, plate hits one-year high
Steel buyers responding to this week’s SMU market survey report a continued softening in sheet lead times. Meanwhile, plate lead times have moderately extended and are at a one-year high.

SMU Survey: Buyers report more price flexibility from mills
Nearly half of the steel buyers responding to this week’s SMU market survey say domestic mills are showing increased willingness to negotiate pricing on new spot orders. This marks a significant shift from the firmer stance mills held in prior weeks.

SMU Survey: Buyers’ Sentiment Indices fall
Current Sentiment Index dropped six points to +42 this week compared to two weeks earlier. It has fallen in every successive survey since reaching a 2025 high of +66 on Feb. 19.

March service center shipments and inventories report
Steel service center shipments and inventories report through March 2024.

Apparent steel supply contracts in February
The amount of finished steel that entered the US market in February receded from January’s peak, according to our analysis of Department of Commerce and American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) data.