SMU Data and Models
Steel Mill Lead Times Treading Water with Little to No Change
Written by John Packard
December 3, 2015
The following lead times are averages generated out of the flat rolled steel market analysis we conducted beginning on Monday of this week. Actual mill lead times will vary from mill to mill and we always recommend that buyers speak to their mill representatives in order to obtain the most up to date lead times for that mill.
Those responding to our inquiry regarding hot rolled lead times reported a 3 week average which is essentially unchanged over the past few months. Last year at the beginning of December HR lead times averaged 3.5 weeks.
Cold rolled lead times averaged at 4.78 weeks again, essentially unchanged from what we have been reporting for the past few months. In early December 2014 CR lead times averaged 5.68 weeks.
Galvanized lead times average just over 5 weeks (5.20) which is where we have seen them over the past few months. One year ago GI lead times were at 6.0 weeks.
Galvalume lead times were reported to be averaging just over 6.0 weeks (6.13) which is in line with the 6.20 weeks reported one year ago.
It is our opinion that lead times will be one of the early signs of change which may lead to a spark and move steel prices off the current levels.
To see an interactive history of our Steel Mill Lead Time data, visit our website here.
John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in SMU Data and Models
SMU Scrap Survey: Current and Future Sentiment tick down
SMU’s Current Sentiment Index for scrap decreased this month, a move mirrored by our Future Sentiment Index, according to the latest data from our ferrous scrap survey.
SMU Survey: Buyers’ Sentiment slips again, future outlook improves
Each of our Sentiment Indices continues to reflect that steel buyers are positive about their present and future business prospects, though that confidence has eased considerably compared to the beginning of the year.
SMU scrap market survey results now available
SMU’s October ferrous scrap market survey results are now available on our website to all premium members.
SMU flat-rolled market survey results now available
SMU’s latest steel buyers market survey results are now available on our website to all premium members.
SMU Survey: Sheet and plate lead times stabilize
Sheet and plate lead times saw minor shifts this week, according to SMU’s latest market survey. Sheet times have inched up over the last month but remain within days of multi-year lows, as they have since May. Plate lead times have bobbed within a tight range for months, hovering roughly a week longer than this time last year.