SMU Data and Models

Steel Mill Lead Times Treading Water with Little to No Change
Written by John Packard
December 3, 2015
The following lead times are averages generated out of the flat rolled steel market analysis we conducted beginning on Monday of this week. Actual mill lead times will vary from mill to mill and we always recommend that buyers speak to their mill representatives in order to obtain the most up to date lead times for that mill.
Those responding to our inquiry regarding hot rolled lead times reported a 3 week average which is essentially unchanged over the past few months. Last year at the beginning of December HR lead times averaged 3.5 weeks.
Cold rolled lead times averaged at 4.78 weeks again, essentially unchanged from what we have been reporting for the past few months. In early December 2014 CR lead times averaged 5.68 weeks.
Galvanized lead times average just over 5 weeks (5.20) which is where we have seen them over the past few months. One year ago GI lead times were at 6.0 weeks.
Galvalume lead times were reported to be averaging just over 6.0 weeks (6.13) which is in line with the 6.20 weeks reported one year ago.
It is our opinion that lead times will be one of the early signs of change which may lead to a spark and move steel prices off the current levels.
To see an interactive history of our Steel Mill Lead Time data, visit our website here.

John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in SMU Data and Models

SMU Survey: Current Sentiment tumbles on tariffs, uncertainty, soft demand
SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices moved in opposing directions this week. Our Current Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Index dropped to one of the lowest levels recorded in over five years, while Future Buyers’ Sentiment inched higher.

SMU flat-rolled market survey results now available
SMU’s latest steel buyers market survey results are now available on our website to all premium members. After logging in at steelmarketupdate.com, visit the pricing and analysis tab and look under the “survey results” section for “latest survey results.” Past survey results are also available under that selection. If you need help accessing the survey results, or if […]

SMU Survey: Buyers report little change in sheet and plate lead times
Steel buyers report steady lead times for sheet and plate products, a soft-sideways trend we've seen since May.

SMU Survey: Mills remain flexible on pricing, buyers say
The majority of steel buyers responding to our market survey this week continue to say that mills are negotiable on new spot order prices. Negotiation rates have remained high since May.

Service centers: Mill orders improve in July
SMU’s Mill Order Index (MOI) moved higher in July after rebounding the month prior. The shift comes after mill orders declined from March through May.