Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
January 11, 2016
The last couple of days have been hectic as we worked through the articles seen in tonight’s newsletter as well as numerous articles that we are working on various topics. The two headline articles are, of course, the next round of flat rolled price increases. The Nucor $20 hot rolled and $30 cold rolled and coated is fairly modest and is being well received by most SMU spoke with today. It is, of course, too early to tell what impact it could have but we heard from one coated service center that they were being quoted base prices as high as $28.50/cwt from at least one mill supplier (at the top end of our range that would be a $30 per ton price increase).
As the month has progressed, the amount being paid for shredded and even heavy melt grades of scrap can vary by quite a bit. We were reading a Mike Marley piece (World Steel Dynamics) earlier this evening about the prices paid for shredded scrap ($225), busheling ($215) and heavy melt ($205) by mills in the Southeast. The order books have improved at the mini-mills and they need the scrap.
The second major story over the past 24 hours is the countervailing duty (CVD) preliminary determination on hot rolled coil which was announced on Monday. The main story there is Brazil got hit with both CVD and critical circumstances and will be required to pay a cash deposit on steel that arrived in mid-October all the way through the publication of the details in the Federal Register (and future orders as well). Turkey and South Korea both were found to be de minimis (less than 1 percent) or having no subsidies what-so-ever.
We have an article in tonight’s newsletter where we provide details as to the history of HRC exports out of Brazil, Turkey and Korea. You may find some of that data interesting.
For those of you who are registering (and the holidays are over and our registrations are starting to pick up) for the Leadership Summit Conference, if you are interested in playing golf at the PGA National Resort, whether on the Champions Course or another one of their golf courses, please contact Ray Culley at: Ray.Culley@SteelMarketUpdate.com. We have a few tee times reserved and he can assist in putting foursomes together.
We know there are a lot of options for conferences at this time of the year. We have put together a tremendous program that hits a number of key issues for managers who are with companies that have an exposure to the steel industry. We know the issues of managing Millennials (and mixed generation work forces), Creating Competitive Advantage (this is a must for most service centers but many manufacturing companies as well), understanding and using social media and the legal ramifications associated with social media (and employers/employees) are timely and important topics. We have Lewis Liebowitz who will help everyone understand the antidumping and countervailing duty process, changes in the laws and what companies can do to protect their interests. We also have the top people in the steel industry involved with new steels not only for the automotive industries but also for construction. We think you will be interested in learning what the industry is doing to expand the uses of high strength steels and the new steels in the process of being developed. It is unusual to have the president of the SMDI along with John Hopkins University who have partnered in this project. Is your company interested in light-weighting or perhaps offering options to your customers to separate your company from the competition?
You can register online or feel free to contact our offices: 800-432-3475. I think this conference will be one you do not want to miss…
As always your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, Publisher
John Packard
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Final Thoughts
Steel equities and steel futures fell hard after news broke earlier this week that the US and Mexico might reach an agreement that would result in the 50% Section 232 tariff coming off Mexican steel. The sharp declines didn’t make much sense, especially if, as some reports indicate, Mexico might agree to a fixed quota. They didn't make sense even if steel flows between the US and Mexico remain unchanged.
Final Thoughts
Even before the news about Mexico, I didn’t want to overstate the magnitude of the change in momentum. As far as we could tell, there hadn’t been a frenzy of new ordering following President Trump’s announcement of 50% Section 232 tariffs. But higher tariffs had unquestionably raised prices for imports, which typically provide the floor for domestic pricing. We’d heard, for example, that prices below $800 per short ton for hot-rolled (HR) coil were gone from the domestic market – even for larger buyers.
Final Thoughts
I want to draw your attention to SMU’s monthly scrap market survey. It’s a premium feature that complements our long-running steel market survey. We’ve been running our scrap survey since late January. And over just that short time, it’s become a valuable way not only for us to assess where scrap prices might go but also to quantify some of the “fuzzy” indicators - like sentiment and flows - that help to put the price in context.
Final Thoughts
I think there is an obvious case for sheet and plate prices going higher from here. That’s because, on a very basic level, the floor for flat-rolled steel prices, which is typically provided by imports, is now significantly higher than it was a week ago.
Final Thoughts
We're about to hit 50% Section 232 steel tariffs. What could happen?