Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
March 7, 2016
Ted Cruz said it best the other night while debating Donald Trump, “breathe, breathe, breathe….” While speaking to one of my longtime steel buying contacts we began discussing the mentality to this market as there are many “unknowns” such as exactly what the heck is going on in China. We were discussing the difference between experienced traders, who are not taking positions and have been relatively calm over the past few weeks. Meantime, those who haven’t experienced a “push, push” market are, “getting caught up in the this [frenzy], it feeds on itself after awhile.”
Traders are nervous. Steel buyers are nervous and everyone needs to take a few calming breaths before jumping in (or out) of this market.
A quick comment about our upcoming Steel 101: Introduction to Steel Making & Market Fundamentals workshop, the May 17-18, 2016 workshop is about 50 percent sold out and we are building what appears to be an exception group of attendees. The workshop will be held just outside of Toledo, Ohio (airports to use are Toledo, Detroit or Cleveland) and we will tour the North Star Bluescope steel mill. You can learn more about our program, instructors, etc. on our website or you are welcome to contact our office at 800-432-3475 and I will answer any questions that you or your team might have.
SMU also conducts custom workshops for service centers, manufacturing companies or steel mills on a wide array of subjects. If your company has an interest in utilizing our training services please contact me at: John@SteelMarketUpdate.com.
Lastly, we are already getting registrations for our 2016 Steel Summit Conference which will be held in Atlanta, Georgia on August 29-31, 2016. I got a text from an international steel mill the other day who, up to now, has never attended one of our Steel Summit Conferences (this will be our 6th). He told me, “Just so u know: u finally may have convinced me to contribute to your retirement fund. Have not signed up yet, but secured a room at the Marriott for your August 29th Steel Summit. U have a good lineup and I will try to convince my boss to attend.” That’s what I like to hear. This year’s lineup will be exceptionally strong and will have some variety to make it of interest and value to everyone. Those who have been to one of the last two conferences that we have held at the Georgia International Convention Center next to the ATL airport already know that our Steel Summit Conference is one of the best networking opportunities you will have (be it sales, purchasing or management related). Save the dates: August 29th (afternoon arrival) through 5 PM on August 31st. We are also looking at adding a Managing Price Risk one day workshop either the day before or the day after (we will advise soon). A special thank you to our sponsors: Pacesetter Steel, Big River Steel, Steel Dynamics, Magic Coil Products, Alliance Steel, Kenwal. We have a few sponsorships as well as a number of exhibition spaces still available. You can find details on our website or contact me at info@SteelMarketUpdate.com.
As always your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, Publisher
John Packard
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Final Thoughts
Steel equities and steel futures fell hard after news broke earlier this week that the US and Mexico might reach an agreement that would result in the 50% Section 232 tariff coming off Mexican steel. The sharp declines didn’t make much sense, especially if, as some reports indicate, Mexico might agree to a fixed quota. They didn't make sense even if steel flows between the US and Mexico remain unchanged.
Final Thoughts
Even before the news about Mexico, I didn’t want to overstate the magnitude of the change in momentum. As far as we could tell, there hadn’t been a frenzy of new ordering following President Trump’s announcement of 50% Section 232 tariffs. But higher tariffs had unquestionably raised prices for imports, which typically provide the floor for domestic pricing. We’d heard, for example, that prices below $800 per short ton for hot-rolled (HR) coil were gone from the domestic market – even for larger buyers.
Final Thoughts
I want to draw your attention to SMU’s monthly scrap market survey. It’s a premium feature that complements our long-running steel market survey. We’ve been running our scrap survey since late January. And over just that short time, it’s become a valuable way not only for us to assess where scrap prices might go but also to quantify some of the “fuzzy” indicators - like sentiment and flows - that help to put the price in context.
Final Thoughts
I think there is an obvious case for sheet and plate prices going higher from here. That’s because, on a very basic level, the floor for flat-rolled steel prices, which is typically provided by imports, is now significantly higher than it was a week ago.
Final Thoughts
We're about to hit 50% Section 232 steel tariffs. What could happen?