Economy
June 2016 at a Glance
Written by Brett Linton
June 30, 2016
Andre Marshall stated in his “futures” article this evening that perhaps the market is a little too negative. The purpose of looking at the month of June in its totality is to provide another way to look at what just happened over the past month as you prepare for the next one.
SMU Price Momentum Indicator was adjusted to “Neutral” during the month of June. We believe prices will trend sideways (or bounce up and down, which is what we have seen over the past couple of weeks) until momentum is re-established in one direction or the other. The price increase announcements made by ArcelorMittal and NLMK USA during the month do not appear to have had any effect on the direction of prices.
SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index continues to move higher on our 3 month moving average. However, as we look at the monthly data we may be getting a little “toppy” with the numbers. Don’t get us wrong, these numbers are as optimistic as we have ever seen in our index. We will be watching this data carefully as we delve into the month of July.
Our hot rolled average for the month was the same as the CME settlement number and $2 per ton less than the Platts average for the month.
One item of huge importance is our calculation that the service centers (carbon flat rolled) inventories are now in deficit by 197,000 tons. That is not a big number when looking back at recent history – so we can call inventories essentially “balanced” and we expect them to remain that way for a number of months. Our Apparent Excess/Deficit Model is a proprietary product we share with our Premium level members once per month along with our forecast for distributor inventories going forward.
Brett Linton
Read more from Brett LintonLatest in Economy
Steel Summit: Dr. Basu blames tariffs for riskier path ahead
Steel executives packed the main conference hall of the 2025 SMU Steel Summit on Tuesday, Aug. 26, to hear economist Dr. Anirban Basu lay out his blunt view of tariffs, inflation, and demand.
Steel Summit: Schneider sees SDI ‘on the edge of a very good run’
Steel Dynamics Inc. (SDI) President and Chief Operating Officer, Barry Schneider, remains bullish about the Fort Wayne, Ind.-based steelmaker’s position in the current market.
US housing starts gain momentum in July
US housing starts rose in July both month-on-month and year-on-year, according to figures from the US Census Bureau.
Manufacturing in New York state improves again in August
Business activity in New York state improved modestly in August. It was just the second positive reading for the general business conditions index in six months.
President Trump intends to set additional steel tariffs
While boarding Airforce One on Friday, US President Donald Trump stated that he would be setting more steel tariffs and putting ~100% tariffs on semiconductors and chips.