SMU HR Price MoMo Index: Deeper into Negative Territory

MoMo was measured at -11.62 percent this week, meaning that the current HRC price is lower than the average price over the last 12 weeks.

The change in MoMo can be a useful indicator in depicting the severity of price movements and evaluating the directional trend for flat rolled steel prices. The week-over-week change in MoMo was -1.18 percent, following a change of +1.29 percent last week. This indicates that the upward movement previously saw in hot rolled price momentum has reversed and is now trending downward compared to the previous week.

To get a wider sense of the change in the MoMo Index and eliminate weekly fluctuations, we calculate a 3-week average change. The 3-week average change in the MoMo Index is -1.49 percent, following a change of -0.78 percent the week before. This shows that there is a downward movement in hot rolled price momentum and that movement has accelerated compared the previous 3-week period.

The graph below demonstrates the relationship between the SMU hot rolled coil price, the SMU Price MoMo Index, and the three week moving average change in the MoMo Index. Click here to view and interact with it on our website. As published this evening’s issue, our revised SMU HRC price range is $490-$530 per ton with an average price of $510, down $10 from our Tuesday evening price and down $15 from last week.