Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
February 1, 2017
I debated about just changing our Price Momentum Indicator to Neutral just on hot rolled and cold rolled and leaving galvanized at Higher. The pricing pressure on coated products spot negotiations does not appear to be necessary when looking at the lead times. The question then becomes are the lead times perhaps a bit “padded,” as many customers are advising SMU that their orders are coming in early?
A galvanized focused service center told SMU this afternoon that the spot market was “a mixed bag.” He was concerned that spot prices out of service centers were beginning to drop and the market was much more competitive. He also told us that the spot market for his mix of galvanized products was very slow.
One of the steel mills (conversion mill) told us today that they just closed their order book for February and since their order book is 50 percent contract they are now into the 3rd week of March lead times….
The Steel 101 workshop for Toledo, Ohio is open for registration. The dates are April 11 & 12,2017 and the mill tour will be at the North Star BlueScope steel mill in Delta, Ohio. Registration and information about the workshop can be found on our website: www.SteelMarketUpdate.com. “Overall, a job well done explaining steelmaking and the market fundamentals to a varied audience. Whether you’re eight weeks or eight years in the steel business, there’s something in it for you.” Kari LaHaie, Magic Steel
Registration is also open for our 7th Steel Summit Conference which will be in Atlanta, Georgia on August 28, 29 & 30th at the Georgia International Convention Center. Our host hotel will once again be the Atlanta Airport Marriott Gateway Hotel plus their sister properties located across the street. “Anyone who is involved in the flat rolled business who does not attend this conference is missing out on an opportunity to grow personally as well as returning value to their organization.” Shane Morris, Commodity Manager, Crown Equipment Corporation
More information about the conference can be found on our website: www.SteelMarketUpdate.com
I want to also take a moment to thank our sponsors who have already committed to this year’s conference: Pacesetter, Bank of America, Mill Steel, Heidtman Steel, Alliance Steel, Magic Coil Products, Kenwal Steel, Midwest Materials. We have a limited number of sponsorships left. You can find a brochure on our website or contact us at: info@SteelMarketUpdate.com and we can provide one to you and advise what options are still available. We also have a limited number of exhibition booth space available as well. Questions? Call me at 800-432-3475.
As always, your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, Publisher
John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Tariff-related noise aside, there is one basic factor keeping buyers on the sidelines. Despite recent declines, HR prices remain at historically high levels. And there is no obvious support to keep them there.
Final Thoughts
United Airlines raised eyebrows earlier this month when it provided two forecasts for 2025 – one assuming a relatively stable economy and another assuming a recession. The reason? Uncertainty around the impact of President Trump’s policy shocks on the broader economy. And it sometimes feels like we’re seeing a battle between those two narratives (stable vs recession) play out within in the pages of this newsletter.
Final Thoughts
Despite some scary headlines lately (especially about Trump potentially firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell) this is not October 2008 (financial crisis) or March 2020 (onset of the pandemic). But it sure seems like we’ve taken a relatively strong economy and poured a thick sauce of uncertainty over it.
Final Thoughts
I put some of our survey data through ChatGpt, with interesting results.
Final Thoughts
Nearly 50% of respondents to our latest survey thought hot-rolled coil prices have already peaked. And where will those prices be two months from now? Responses were decidedly split on that question.