Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
February 22, 2017
Scrap, scrap, scrap, scrap and scrap…that is what everyone is going to be talking about for the next week to ten days. David Feldstein in tonight’s HRC Futures article suggested prime grades could go higher in March by as much as $80 per gross ton. I have read articles that suggest the numbers could be up $30, $40, $50, $60 per gross ton. At this moment, I don’t think I can bring any calm to the rampant speculation. We will write more on the subject of ferrous scrap, March negotiations and what is “real” vs. posturing in a few days. Until then, the steel mills have set the stage to jump prices should scrap go up by $40 per gross ton or more in March. Steel buyers should be aware of what is going on around you and those end users who tend to not pay attention you may want to be careful – read our stuff, the AMM, Mike Marley of WSD and others and be prepared for Momentum to bounce back in favor of the domestic mills. SMU Price Momentum Indicator is still pointing toward Neutral but, when we first moved to Neutral the bias was for prices to slip a little (they did) and now our bias is for a reversal of fortunes. Being the steel business we will wait and watch the pieces drop into place and we will report what we learn as they fall.
I understand that US Steel has adjusted their zinc coating extras for galvanized steel. We will try to find the new extras and will provide an analysis between the old and new. If you have a copy please send it over to us at info@SteelMarketUpdate.com. USS normally updates their extras on their website shortly after making changes. You can find their extras using this link.
I will have more on scrap in Sunday night’s issue of Steel Market Update. Mike Marley of World Steel Dynamics wrote about ferrous scrap last night.
We are down to just three sponsorship spots left for this year’s SMU Steel Summit Conference in Atlanta on August 28-30, 2017. We have two break sponsors and the Monday afternoon “Pre-Summit” program and networking at the lounge at the host hotel.
A special thank you to Ryerson who just joined our group of sponsors for the 2017 SMU Steel Summit Conference. Ryerson joins Pacesetter, Mill Steel, Bank of America, Nucor, Alliance Steel, Magic Coil Products, Kenwal, MidWest Materials and Heidtman Steel. As I mentioned in another article about our SMU App, a special note of thanks goes to Pacesetter who stepped up as not only the Conference Sponsor but also the sponsor of Wi-Fi access for the entire conference.
I noticed that a number of large companies are using our conference as an excellent time to bring together commercial departments, general managers or the executive team for meetings either prior to or right after our conference has been held. A perfect way to kill two birds with one stone… If you need help getting the right person at one of the hotels or the convention center please let us know: info@SteelMarketUpdate.com and we will do our best to assist you. Oh, and while you are at it, don’t forget to invite your customers or suppliers to join you in Atlanta for our conference.
As always, your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, Publisher
John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in Final Thoughts
Final thoughts
Sometimes even in a bit of chaos there is complacency. And it seems that since March 2020, “a bit of chaos” has been the order of the day. That means in the world at large, and in steel specifically.
Final thoughts
SMU had the pleasure of attending the American Iron and Steel Institute's (AISI's) annual general meeting in Washington this week. It was a slow week in our nation's capital, so we were able to take a leisurely stroll around the National Mall and take in the sights. Just kidding. In fact, the meeting coincided with significant trade actions announced by the Biden administration. It included, among other things, additional tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminum.
Final thoughts
Our spot price is little changed this week after moving sharply lower last week on the heels of Nucor’s unexpected price cut. Here’s one thought on that trend: Nucor's weekly HR price (aka, its “Consumer Spot Price” or CSP) has to date functioned almost more like a monthly price.
Final thoughts
What's the tea in the steel industry this week? Here's the latest SMU gossip column! Just kidding... kind of. Yes, some of the comments we receive in our weekly flat-rolled market steel buyers' survey are honestly too much to put into print. Some make us laugh. Some make us cringe. Some are cryptic. Most are serious. We appreciate them all. Below are some highlights from our survey results this week. Some of the comments that we can share with you are also included, in italics, in the buyers' own words, with minimal editing on our part.
Final thoughts
Last week we wrote about a brief lull in price movement, labeling it a period of wait and see. It did, in fact, turn out to be pretty brief. This week... things are little bit different. Perhaps right now we are more in a period of "hope and pray" or "Here we go, hold on to your hats."