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    Analysis

    February 22, 2017

    Final Thoughts

    Written by John Packard

    Scrap, scrap, scrap, scrap and scrap…that is what everyone is going to be talking about for the next week to ten days. David Feldstein in tonight’s HRC Futures article suggested prime grades could go higher in March by as much as $80 per gross ton. I have read articles that suggest the numbers could be up $30, $40, $50, $60 per gross ton. At this moment, I don’t think I can bring any calm to the rampant speculation. We will write more on the subject of ferrous scrap, March negotiations and what is “real” vs. posturing in a few days. Until then, the steel mills have set the stage to jump prices should scrap go up by $40 per gross ton or more in March. Steel buyers should be aware of what is going on around you and those end users who tend to not pay attention you may want to be careful – read our stuff, the AMM, Mike Marley of WSD and others and be prepared for Momentum to bounce back in favor of the domestic mills. SMU Price Momentum Indicator is still pointing toward Neutral but, when we first moved to Neutral the bias was for prices to slip a little (they did) and now our bias is for a reversal of fortunes. Being the steel business we will wait and watch the pieces drop into place and we will report what we learn as they fall.

    I understand that US Steel has adjusted their zinc coating extras for galvanized steel. We will try to find the new extras and will provide an analysis between the old and new. If you have a copy please send it over to us at info@SteelMarketUpdate.com. USS normally updates their extras on their website shortly after making changes. You can find their extras using this link.

    John Packard

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