• Skip to main content

    Prices

    February 26, 2017

    Ferrous Scrap Prices to Jump by How Much & Why are the Questions

    Written by John Packard

    The rumors about March ferrous scrap prices have been flying ever since prices rebounded early in February from the initial down $10-$30 per gross ton we saw in the early negotiations. As the month of February continued scrap prices rebounded and, in some cases, returned to levels seen in January. As we prepared for March negotiations our sources advise how they see market prices developing and what will be the key drivers to scrap pricing.

    We heard from one of our sources located in the Ohio Valley, “The driving factor in today’s market is the lack of prime scrap which is due to; high demand, Nucor’s unexpected shutdown of their DRI plant, Big River start up and very low availability of pig iron.  Prime scrap will undoubtedly move up $45gt +.  If mills are unable to buy primes they will substitute with shred and plate increasing demand for these grades.  Also, melt shop software or “optimizing” programs may increase shred consumption if the discrepancy between prime and shred prices exceed current parameters. Adding to this are rising export prices with current offers from the US exporters reportedly over $300 CFR for HMS.  This is already $40-50 higher than February lows.  The majority of dealers sold all their stocks in Dec/Jan with very few having excess tons moving into March.  Seems like we will see prices exceed January levels and, in my opinion, these new levels will continue through April.”

    John Packard

    Read more from John Packard

    Latest in Prices

    Nucor aims to raise plate prices by $70/ton, opens December orderbook

    Nucor said on Friday morning it plans to increase plate prices by $70 per short ton (st) as it opens its December order book. The Charlotte, N.C.-based steelmaker said in a letter to customers that orders must be submitted by Nov. 27 to be considered. You can check out SMU’s Steel Mill Price Announcement Calendar to follow announced pricing moves. SMU’s price assessment for plate currently stands at $1,550/st on average, as of Tuesday, Nov. 10, up $55/st vs. the prior week.

    SMU’s ferrous scrap prices rise in November

    Ferrous scrap prices rose in November across all grades SMU tracks, though prices varied widely by region. “Marketwise, we saw disparate market movements between regions in the November trade, which wrapped up earlier this week,” one source told SMU. “It was a mixed bag, depending on the region and grade.” The source added that export pricing also rose over the course of last week, “but much less than the domestic market.”  Demand from US mills is strong and “there is probably more lift to be expected in the market between now and the January trade," he continued.

    SMU Survey: Steel mill negotiations remain rare as buyers face tight supply

    Only 5% of steel buyers surveyed by SMU this week said mills were willing to negotiate lower prices for new spot orders, suggesting mills retain substantial pricing leverage in a tight market. The share rose two percentage points from our previous survey two weeks ago but was nine points below the mid-October reading. This week's rate is just slightly higher than our previous survey when the negotiation rate fell to 3% — its lowest level since July 2021. Negotiation rates have trended downward all year as steel prices have continued to climb.

    SMU Price Ranges rise on tight supply, no signs of a year-end slowdown

    Sheet and plate prices continue to move higher on trends now familiar across the flat-rolled steel market: long lead times, limited availability, and domestic mills seemingly struggling to keep up with demand. Some market participants voiced concern about a potential slowdown in data center construction in the wake of sweeping Democratic victories at both the state and federal level as well as popular sentiment turning against the centers. But no one we contacted saw such concerns impacting the direction of prices over the short term. Commodity grades of HR are hard to find. And finding some items – whether it’s floor plate or 72-inch-wide coil – has become even more difficult, one steel buyer said.

    Nucor ups spot HR coil to $1,295/ton

    Nucor said on Monday, Nov. 9, that its consumer spot price (CSP) for hot-rolled (HR) coil will be $1,295 per short ton (st) this week, up $15/st from the prior week. The CSP for HR coil from California Steel Industries (CSI) on the West Coast will be $1,365/st, also up $15/st from last week. Nucor continues to offer lead times of three to five weeks, according to its letter to customers. You can track mill price announcements on our website. Steel Market Update (SMU) published a weekly price assessment on Tuesday, Nov. 3, showing HR coil prices averaging $1,350/st, up $45/st from the previous week. We will update our prices on the evening of Tuesday, Oct. 10.