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    Analysis

    April 27, 2017

    Final Thoughts

    Written by John Packard

    The industry is abuzz with all kinds of speculation as to how the Section 232 investigation will impact traders and steel buyers. Another Section 232 was announced and should have been signed by President Trump today covering aluminum. I was texting with one of the steel mills this morning about their access to aluminum for coating aluminized and Galvalume steels. There is a question as to whether the investigation will cover aluminum ingots versus aluminum sheet (used in autos, cans, etc.). The mill advised me that their attorneys were already preparing to make comments to the Department of Commerce to make sure they did not lose their sources of supply.

    Lewis Leibowitz and I have spoken a few times over the course of this week. There are so many issues being raised that I am considering putting a program on defining each trade issue being considered and how decisions are (will be) made and how they are/could affect manufacturing companies, service centers, steel mills, etc. I think it is important that our SMU Steel Summit Conference attendees understand what is a Section 232, Section 201, Section 337, Antidumping, Countervailing Duty and Circumvention. In the case of circumvention there may be more complaints similar to Vietnam/China. The Final Determination on the Circumvention complaint is due on September 3rd unless it gets extended. We should have a Preliminary Determination over the next couple of months. There is also this issue of “self-initiation” which is essentially what the Trump Administration is doing with the Section 232 investigation. Even though Commerce has 270 days (9 months) we believe the announcement will come out much sooner than that. We saw a comment attributed to President Trump suggesting the process could be done within 50 days…

    John Packard

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