Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
May 17, 2017
This evening I attended the Metals Industry Boy Scout Dinner in Chicago. The steel, and now metals industries have supported the Chicago area Boy Scouts for more than 25 years and, once again, there was close to 1,000 mostly steel people at the cocktail party and dinner. This included steel mills, service centers, trading companies, toll processors and many others who are associated with the industry.
One of the main topics of conversation was about the Section 232 investigation and how each company was dealing with the uncertainty contained in this investigation. There are companies who feel the result was known long before the investigation was called for by President Trump. Others think there is no way the manufacturing companies are going to lay down and take the abuse that could come from a limit or elimination of some/all foreign steel.
Uncertainty is the word of the day.
As always, your business is truly appreciated by all of us at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, Publisher
John Packard
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Final Thoughts
Steel equities and steel futures fell hard after news broke earlier this week that the US and Mexico might reach an agreement that would result in the 50% Section 232 tariff coming off Mexican steel. The sharp declines didn’t make much sense, especially if, as some reports indicate, Mexico might agree to a fixed quota. They didn't make sense even if steel flows between the US and Mexico remain unchanged.
Final Thoughts
Even before the news about Mexico, I didn’t want to overstate the magnitude of the change in momentum. As far as we could tell, there hadn’t been a frenzy of new ordering following President Trump’s announcement of 50% Section 232 tariffs. But higher tariffs had unquestionably raised prices for imports, which typically provide the floor for domestic pricing. We’d heard, for example, that prices below $800 per short ton for hot-rolled (HR) coil were gone from the domestic market – even for larger buyers.
Final Thoughts
I want to draw your attention to SMU’s monthly scrap market survey. It’s a premium feature that complements our long-running steel market survey. We’ve been running our scrap survey since late January. And over just that short time, it’s become a valuable way not only for us to assess where scrap prices might go but also to quantify some of the “fuzzy” indicators - like sentiment and flows - that help to put the price in context.
Final Thoughts
I think there is an obvious case for sheet and plate prices going higher from here. That’s because, on a very basic level, the floor for flat-rolled steel prices, which is typically provided by imports, is now significantly higher than it was a week ago.
Final Thoughts
We're about to hit 50% Section 232 steel tariffs. What could happen?