Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
July 19, 2017
This is an over-whelming time to be involved with the steel industry. We have the steel mills announcing price increases at a time when prices normally are flat to lower (they have been running flat to mixed over the past few weeks). The market anxiety is at high ebb as steel buyers and sellers wait for a decision to be made on Section 232. SMU has seen reports that the announcement could come in a speech in Youngstown next week. Other reports are saying it could be as late as Labor Day (right around the time of our conference).
Many of the buyers SMU spoke with today felt the increases were nothing more than trying to keep the market from slipping further. We were told that if Section 232 does not come out next week and instead waits until the end of August or early September mill prices could weaken.
SMU is still questioning if flat rolled steel inventories are at the levels suggested by the MSCI data. You are hearing the steel mills reference the tight inventories as one reason for raising prices. However, when we speak to distributors and wholesalers we are finding they are carrying 2.0 to 3.5 month’s supply. I hope to have more on this either in Sunday or next Tuesday’s issue of Steel Market Update.
Registrations continue for our 7th SMU Steel Summit Conference where we are closing in on 534 attendees which would be 100 more executives than we had last year. Here are some comments from last year’s event (see who you recognize):
We are also getting registrations for our next Steel 101 workshop which will be in Fort Wayne, Indiana and will include a tour of the SDI steel mill. Details can be found by clicking here or going to our website. You can also contact me and I will do my best to answer any questions you might have: 800-432-3475
As always, your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, Publisher
John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Steel equities and steel futures fell hard after news broke earlier this week that the US and Mexico might reach an agreement that would result in the 50% Section 232 tariff coming off Mexican steel. The sharp declines didn’t make much sense, especially if, as some reports indicate, Mexico might agree to a fixed quota. They didn't make sense even if steel flows between the US and Mexico remain unchanged.
Final Thoughts
Even before the news about Mexico, I didn’t want to overstate the magnitude of the change in momentum. As far as we could tell, there hadn’t been a frenzy of new ordering following President Trump’s announcement of 50% Section 232 tariffs. But higher tariffs had unquestionably raised prices for imports, which typically provide the floor for domestic pricing. We’d heard, for example, that prices below $800 per short ton for hot-rolled (HR) coil were gone from the domestic market – even for larger buyers.
Final Thoughts
I want to draw your attention to SMU’s monthly scrap market survey. It’s a premium feature that complements our long-running steel market survey. We’ve been running our scrap survey since late January. And over just that short time, it’s become a valuable way not only for us to assess where scrap prices might go but also to quantify some of the “fuzzy” indicators - like sentiment and flows - that help to put the price in context.
Final Thoughts
I think there is an obvious case for sheet and plate prices going higher from here. That’s because, on a very basic level, the floor for flat-rolled steel prices, which is typically provided by imports, is now significantly higher than it was a week ago.
Final Thoughts
We're about to hit 50% Section 232 steel tariffs. What could happen?