Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
August 9, 2017
Rumor vs. Fact – I was speaking with Tim Triplett (our Executive Editor who recently joined SMU after a 19 year stint at Metal Center News) and we were talking about the “rumor” of a potential price hike by Nucor. Tim raised the question, as members of the media, is it appropriate for us to report on “rumors?” As I told him, what we have been reporting on are not really rumors, but actual conversations between multiple steel buyers and Nucor representatives. Had another mill told us that Nucor was about to raise prices, we would consider that to be a rumor and we would not report it. At the same time, if we receive a note about a price hike from only one buyer and we can’t get others to corroborate it, then we would not report it. The only exception might be if a steel buyer tells us about a mill price increase (or some other important event such as an equipment shutdown) and shows us a letter from the mill. Then we would consider that a fact, not a rumor. Even then we’d talk to other customers. Steel buyers find out things from their suppliers faster than we do. We want to get that information to all our readers as fast as possible.
Those of you who have been reading our newsletter over an extended period know that we try to be very careful once a price increase announcement is made. We do not want to be involved in pushing the market in one direction or another. This is one of the reasons why our SMU Price Momentum Indicator is now at “Neutral.” There is a question, at least in our minds, as to where will steel prices go from here – up, down or sideways? We will let supply, demand and the normal market forces determine that without our help.
I am no longer going to announce our registration numbers for this year’s SMU Steel Summit Conference. I want to leave a little mystery as to what our final number will be. I will tell you we are within striking distance of officially becoming the largest steel conference in North America. We have been on an incredible run and we still have 17 days before the start of our conference. The word seems to be out that our conference is THE conference to attend if you are in any way involved with the steel industry.
I want to take a moment to thank Pete Henry and Paragon Steel for offering Steel 101 attendees participating in our October workshop the opportunity to tour a working service center. For the first time, our SMU Steel 101 workshop will tour a steel mill (SDI Butler) and Paragon Steel on the first day of our workshop. The workshop is sold out and we have a waiting list. We will advise when our next Steel 101 workshop will be held (early 2018), and where, as soon as possible. Again, our thanks to both Steel Dynamics and Paragon Steel for their hospitality.
I want to welcome those new to Steel Market Update both on a trial basis as well as our newest members. We pride ourselves on being available to our members and as many potential members as possible. We appreciate your questions and suggestions. Many of our articles are spawned from the questions we receive from our readers. You are welcome to send them to info@SteelMarketUpdate.com and either I, or a member of our staff, will respond to your query or suggestion.
As always, your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, Publisher
John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Now that the USS/Nippon deal has been completed, what's next?
Final Thoughts
Getting back to the price increases I mentioned at the top of this article, to what extent are they aimed at raising prices and to what extent are they aimed at stopping the bleeding that was happening in the second half of May, before President Trump announced the 50% tariff?
Final Thoughts
We just wrapped another Steel 101 Workshop, where you take what you learned in the classroom into the steel mill.
Final Thoughts
Steel equities and steel futures fell hard after news broke earlier this week that the US and Mexico might reach an agreement that would result in the 50% Section 232 tariff coming off Mexican steel. The sharp declines didn’t make much sense, especially if, as some reports indicate, Mexico might agree to a fixed quota. They didn't make sense even if steel flows between the US and Mexico remain unchanged.
Final Thoughts
Even before the news about Mexico, I didn’t want to overstate the magnitude of the change in momentum. As far as we could tell, there hadn’t been a frenzy of new ordering following President Trump’s announcement of 50% Section 232 tariffs. But higher tariffs had unquestionably raised prices for imports, which typically provide the floor for domestic pricing. We’d heard, for example, that prices below $800 per short ton for hot-rolled (HR) coil were gone from the domestic market – even for larger buyers.