SMU Data and Models

Flat Roll Lead Times Inch Down
Written by Tim Triplett
October 5, 2017
Flat rolled steel lead times have shortened up slightly since mid-September, according to the service centers and manufacturers who responded to Steel Market Update’s market trends questionnaire this week. Lead time, which is the amount of time it takes for the domestic steel mills to produce a new order from the time the order was placed, is a rough indicator of the demand trend. The longer the lead time, the busier the mill and the stronger the demand. On average, flat rolled lead times are now less than four weeks for hot rolled, right at six weeks for cold rolled, a bit longer than six weeks for galvanized and a bit under six weeks for Galvalume.
As of Oct. 1, hot rolled lead times were reported to be averaging 3.60 weeks, down from 3.83 weeks in mid-September and 4.20 weeks in mid-August. A year ago, they were averaging 3.06 weeks.
Cold rolled lead times are down to 6.0 weeks from about 6.14 weeks in mid-September and mid-August. The cold roll lead time has changed very little in the past two months, but is a full week longer than at this time last year.
Galvanized lead times are averaging 6.28 weeks, down from 6.43 a month ago, but up from 5.48 a year ago.
Galvalume lead times are now under six weeks (5.78 weeks), down from 6.55 weeks one month ago and 6.44 weeks one year ago.
Note: These lead times are based on the average from manufacturers and steel service centers who participated in this week’s SMU market trends analysis. Our lead times do not predict what any individual may get from any specific mill supplier. Look to your mill rep for actual lead times. Our lead times are meant only to identify trends and changes in the marketplace. To see an interactive history of our Steel Mill Lead Times data, visit our website here.

Tim Triplett
Read more from Tim TriplettLatest in SMU Data and Models

SMU Survey: Sheet and plate lead times flatten out
Sheet and plate lead times held steady this week, according to buyers responding to the latest SMU market survey. This week we saw little change from mid-April levels, with just one product (Galvalume) showing any significant movement.

SMU Survey: More mills willing to deal on sheet prices, less so on plate
Nearly two thirds of the steel buyers who responded to this week’s SMU survey say domestic mills are negotiable on spot prices. This increasing flexibility marks a significant shift from the firmer stance mills held in recent months.

SMU Survey: Sheet lead times ease further, plate hits one-year high
Steel buyers responding to this week’s SMU market survey report a continued softening in sheet lead times. Meanwhile, plate lead times have moderately extended and are at a one-year high.

SMU Survey: Buyers report more price flexibility from mills
Nearly half of the steel buyers responding to this week’s SMU market survey say domestic mills are showing increased willingness to negotiate pricing on new spot orders. This marks a significant shift from the firmer stance mills held in prior weeks.

SMU Survey: Buyers’ Sentiment Indices fall
Current Sentiment Index dropped six points to +42 this week compared to two weeks earlier. It has fallen in every successive survey since reaching a 2025 high of +66 on Feb. 19.