SMU Data and Models

Steel Mill Lead Times: Shortening
Written by Tim Triplett
October 19, 2017
Flat rolled steel lead times continue to shorten up, a trend under way since early August, according to the service centers and manufacturers who responded to Steel Market Update’s flat rolled steel market trends questionnaire this week. On average, lead times have dipped to nearly three weeks for hot rolled, slightly less than six weeks for cold rolled, right at six weeks for galvanized and a bit over six weeks for Galvalume.
Lead time, which is the amount of time it takes for the domestic steel mills to produce a new order from the time the order was placed, is a rough indicator of the demand trend. The shorter the lead time, the less busy the mill and the weaker the demand. The current shortening lead times would appear to run contrary to recent steel mill price increase announcements.
As of Oct. 15, hot rolled lead times were reported to be averaging 3.16 weeks, down from 3.60 two weeks ago and 4.20 weeks two months ago. A year ago, they were averaging 2.84 weeks.
Cold rolled lead times are down to less than 6.0 weeks (5.77 weeks) from 6.13 weeks a month ago. The cold roll lead time is still nearly a week longer than at this time last year.
Galvanized lead times are averaging 6.0 weeks, down from 6.45 a month ago, but up from 5.61 a year ago.
Galvalume lead times are now averaging about six weeks (6.09 weeks), up from 5.78 weeks in early October, but still below the 6.43 weeks one year ago.
Note: These lead times are based on the average from manufacturers and steel service centers who participated in this week’s SMU market trends analysis. Our lead times do not predict what any individual may get from any specific mill supplier. Look to your mill rep for actual lead times. Our lead times are meant only to identify trends and changes in the marketplace. To see an interactive history of our Steel Mill Lead Times data, visit our website here.

Tim Triplett
Read more from Tim TriplettLatest in SMU Data and Models

SMU Scrap Survey: Current and Future Sentiment tick down
SMU’s Current Sentiment Index for scrap decreased this month, a move mirrored by our Future Sentiment Index, according to the latest data from our ferrous scrap survey.

SMU Survey: Buyers’ Sentiment slips again, future outlook improves
Each of our Sentiment Indices continues to reflect that steel buyers are positive about their present and future business prospects, though that confidence has eased considerably compared to the beginning of the year.

SMU scrap market survey results now available
SMU’s October ferrous scrap market survey results are now available on our website to all premium members.

SMU flat-rolled market survey results now available
SMU’s latest steel buyers market survey results are now available on our website to all premium members.

SMU Survey: Sheet and plate lead times stabilize
Sheet and plate lead times saw minor shifts this week, according to SMU’s latest market survey. Sheet times have inched up over the last month but remain within days of multi-year lows, as they have since May. Plate lead times have bobbed within a tight range for months, hovering roughly a week longer than this time last year.