SMU Data and Models

Strong Distributor Shipments, Receipts Keep Inventories Balanced
Written by John Packard
November 21, 2017
Flat rolled steel inventories ended the month of October in a balanced situation based on the Steel Market Update Apparent Excess/Deficit proprietary model, which is applied to the MSCI inventories and shipment data.
U.S. steel service centers ended the month of September with +68,000 tons of excess inventories, based on the SMU model.
Our forecast called for flat rolled steel distributors to ship 2,205,000 tons of sheet and coil products during the month of October. We also forecast inventories to be at 4,914,000 tons, which if correct would have resulted in the service centers carrying an apparent excess of +147,000 tons.
According to the Metals Service Center Institute (MSCI), October shipments of flat rolled were 2,301,000 tons or almost 100,000 tons better than our forecast.
Our forecast called for receipts to fall in October from the 101,185 tons per day received in September to 100,210 tons per day in October. In actuality, receipts rose to 104,600 tons per day in October.
Inventories of carbon flat rolled came in at 4,847,000 tons or 64,000 fewer tons than forecast.
Service centers are -19,000 tons from having their inventories perfectly balanced.
November Forecast
Steel Market Update believes shipments of flat rolled products will total 2,097,000 tons for the month of November.
We believe inventories of carbon flat rolled will total 4,700,000 tons at the end of the month.
Our forecast calls for the service centers to hold +126,000 tons of excess inventories at the end of the month.

John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in SMU Data and Models

SMU Survey: Current Sentiment tumbles on tariffs, uncertainty, soft demand
SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices moved in opposing directions this week. Our Current Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Index dropped to one of the lowest levels recorded in over five years, while Future Buyers’ Sentiment inched higher.

SMU flat-rolled market survey results now available
SMU’s latest steel buyers market survey results are now available on our website to all premium members. After logging in at steelmarketupdate.com, visit the pricing and analysis tab and look under the “survey results” section for “latest survey results.” Past survey results are also available under that selection. If you need help accessing the survey results, or if […]

SMU Survey: Buyers report little change in sheet and plate lead times
Steel buyers report steady lead times for sheet and plate products, a soft-sideways trend we've seen since May.

SMU Survey: Mills remain flexible on pricing, buyers say
The majority of steel buyers responding to our market survey this week continue to say that mills are negotiable on new spot order prices. Negotiation rates have remained high since May.

Service centers: Mill orders improve in July
SMU’s Mill Order Index (MOI) moved higher in July after rebounding the month prior. The shift comes after mill orders declined from March through May.