Steel Products Prices North America

SMU Price Ranges & Indices: Breaking Out from Holiday Duldrums

Written by John Packard

January 2, 2018

After treading water through the Christmas and New Year Holidays, and then pushed by the most recent price increase announcements (+$40 on flat rolled and +$50 on plate), we are seeing steel prices moving higher by an average of $10 to $20 per ton. The expectation by most steel buyers (not all) is for higher prices in the coming weeks as scrap prices rise and the uncertainty of a Section 232 decision begins to grow (the report is due to the president by Jan. 16).

Many steel buyers referenced price offers out of the domestic mills at $35.00/cwt to $36.00/cwt on hot rolled and $44.00/cwt to $45.00/cwt on cold rolled and coated steels. However, few buyers admitted to paying those kinds of numbers. The commercial officer of one mill told SMU that they were “pushing for a minimum of $42, but it is a hard slog for certain customers to accept such levels for February since that is a seasonally weak consumption month.” The mill went on to say, “Consequently, pricing is being debated fiercely.” This mill expects pricing to run up “substantially” in March and April, and those customers who procrastinated may be hard pressed to find a “good deal.”

Some buyers are skeptical about the strength of the market. “It’s as phony as a three dollar bill. I’m not buying it,” said one service center executive. Other buyers told SMU to expect $800 hot rolled (especially if Trump does something with 232). We will have more feedback in Thursday’s issue of Steel Market Update.

Here is how we see prices this week:

Hot Rolled Coil: SMU price range is $635-$700 per ton ($31.75/cwt-$35.00/cwt) with an average of $667.50 per ton ($33.375/cwt) FOB mill, east of the Rockies. The lower end of our range increased $15 per ton compared to one week ago, while the upper end rose $40 per ton. Our overall average is up $27.50 compared to last week. Our price momentum on hot rolled steel is now pointing to Higher indicating prices are expected to increase over the next 30-60 days.

Hot Rolled Lead Times: 3-5 weeks

Cold Rolled Coil: SMU price range is $785-$880 per ton ($39.25/cwt-$44.00/cwt) with an average of $832.50 per ton ($41.625/cwt) FOB mill, east of the Rockies. The lower end of our range decreased $15 per ton compared to last week, while the upper end rose $30 per ton. Our overall average is up $7.50 per ton compared to one week ago. Our price momentum on cold rolled steel is now pointing to Higher indicating prices are expected to increase over the next 30-60 days.

Cold Rolled Lead Times: 5-7 weeks

Galvanized Coil: SMU base price range is $39.00/cwt-$44.00/cwt ($780-$880 per ton) with an average of $41.50/cwt ($830 per ton) FOB mill, east of the Rockies. The lower end of our range decreased $10 per ton compared to one week ago, while the upper end increased $40 per ton. Our overall average is up $15 per ton compared to last week. Our price momentum on galvanized steel is now pointing to Higher indicating prices are expected to increase over the next 30-60 days.

Galvanized .060” G90 Benchmark: SMU price range is $866-$966 per net ton with an average of $916 per ton FOB mill, east of the Rockies.

Galvanized Lead Times: 3-10 weeks

Galvalume Coil: SMU base price range is $41.00/cwt-$43.00/cwt ($820-$860 per ton) with an average of $42.00/cwt ($840 per ton) FOB mill, east of the Rockies. The lower end of our range increased $20 per ton compared to last week, while the upper end increased $10 per ton. Our overall average is up $15 per ton compared to one week ago. Our price momentum on Galvalume steel is now pointing to Higher indicating prices are expected to increase over the next 30-60 days.

Galvalume .0142” AZ50, Grade 80 Benchmark: SMU price range is $1,111-$1,151 per net ton with an average of $1,131 per ton FOB mill, east of the Rockies.

Galvalume Lead Times: 6-8 weeks

Plate: SMU price range is $720-$780 per ton ($36.00/cwt-$39.00/cwt) with an average of $750 per ton ($37.50/cwt) FOB delivered. The lower end of our range jumped $70 per ton compared to one week ago, while the upper end increased $30 per ton. Our overall average is up $50 per ton compared to last week. Our price momentum on plate steel is now pointing to Higher indicating prices are expected to increase over the next 30-60 days.

Plate Lead Times: 4-6 weeks

SMU Note: Below is a graphic showing our hot rolled, cold rolled, galvanized, Galvalume, and plate price history. To use the graph’s interactive capabilities, you must view it on our website here. If you need help navigating the website or need to know your login information, contact us at info@SteelMarketUpdate.com or 800-432-3475.

John Packard

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