Final Thoughts

Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
January 8, 2018
We have had companies contact us already regarding when registration will open for the 2018 SMU Steel Summit Conference. We will be working on the Steel Summit section of the website tomorrow (Wednesday) with the hope to open up registration for the Aug. 27-29, 2018, event on Friday of this week. We will also open up the links to the three hotels we have blocked for this year’s event. The conference will be held at the Georgia International Convention Center where we will be able to accomodate the 750-800 expected attendees. If you have any questions, please do not hesitate to give us a call at 800-432-3475. Invoices and direct payments go through 772-932-7538. You can email us at info@SteelMarketUpdate.com. To inquire about sponsor spots and exhibition space, please contact Jill Waldman at Jill@SteelMarketUpdate.com.
With the fast-approaching deadline for Wilbur Ross to file his long-awaited Section 232 report on steel (and aluminum), the market is abuzz with speculation as to what the report will say and what recommendations it will make to the president. There are opinions that range from no recommendations at all to one which suggests quotas and duties. There have been other investigative reports sent to the White House where the report and its recommendations continue to be a secret. Since this is a political move, we can only assume the timing of any release of information will be politically motivated.
Earlier today, I tweeted some items on our Twitter account (#SMUsteel) about the plate price increases and I noticed that ArcelorMittal was doing a lot of tweeting about how important steel is to national security… I think we all agree as invested manufacturers and steel distributors that there is a need for a healthy steel industry. At the moment, with hot rolled prices well above $600 per ton, the industry should be quite vibrant. The antidumping and countervailing duties have stopped Chinese steel and the circumvention ruling against Vietnam may create an environment where substrate from countries deemed to be “dumping” in the U.S. may be blocked from going through the backdoor by sending their substrate to countries not blocked from doing business in the U.S. A Section 232 ruling with “teeth” may have more negatives than positives for manufacturing and in the process the steel mills. One thing is clear, the industry does need to get rid of the uncertainty that is preventing some from conducting their business and making buying and selling decisions.
I welcome your comments, and I am working on an article on the subject for the next issue of Steel Market Update.
As always, your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, Publisher

John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in Final Thoughts

Final Thoughts
Can technology help with pig iron and DRI/HBI tariffs?

Final Thoughts
Tariff-related noise aside, there is one basic factor keeping buyers on the sidelines. Despite recent declines, HR prices remain at historically high levels. And there is no obvious support to keep them there.

Final Thoughts
United Airlines raised eyebrows earlier this month when it provided two forecasts for 2025 – one assuming a relatively stable economy and another assuming a recession. The reason? Uncertainty around the impact of President Trump’s policy shocks on the broader economy. And it sometimes feels like we’re seeing a battle between those two narratives (stable vs recession) play out within in the pages of this newsletter.

Final Thoughts
Despite some scary headlines lately (especially about Trump potentially firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell) this is not October 2008 (financial crisis) or March 2020 (onset of the pandemic). But it sure seems like we’ve taken a relatively strong economy and poured a thick sauce of uncertainty over it.

Final Thoughts
I put some of our survey data through ChatGpt, with interesting results.