Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
January 10, 2018
There was an interesting article in World Trade Today this afternoon regarding the expectations associated with the Section 232 investigation and the report that will be provided to President Trump by Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross over the weekend or early next week. WTT reported, “While the final steel report is expected to be delivered to the White House next week, a public release of its findings is highly unlikely,” a source said. “There may be some sort of public acknowledgment, but I doubt the content of the report will be disclosed this month.”
The key takeaway from what I have been reading is those of you anticipating some form of closure next week may be in for a disappointment. There are some who think the president may act at, or around, his State of the Union address, which is scheduled for Jan. 30.
An unclassified report has to be published in the Federal Register. However, there is no deadline for that to happen.
It appears that the finding of a need for a strong steel industry being crucial to the nation’s national security is a foregone conclusion. The question is what will the remedy be? It appears that is not as easy to answer as the administration may have thought when they ordered the report.
Trump has 90 days after receiving the report to announce his decision.
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John Packard
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Final Thoughts
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Steel equities and steel futures fell hard after news broke earlier this week that the US and Mexico might reach an agreement that would result in the 50% Section 232 tariff coming off Mexican steel. The sharp declines didn’t make much sense, especially if, as some reports indicate, Mexico might agree to a fixed quota. They didn't make sense even if steel flows between the US and Mexico remain unchanged.
Final Thoughts
Even before the news about Mexico, I didn’t want to overstate the magnitude of the change in momentum. As far as we could tell, there hadn’t been a frenzy of new ordering following President Trump’s announcement of 50% Section 232 tariffs. But higher tariffs had unquestionably raised prices for imports, which typically provide the floor for domestic pricing. We’d heard, for example, that prices below $800 per short ton for hot-rolled (HR) coil were gone from the domestic market – even for larger buyers.
Final Thoughts
I want to draw your attention to SMU’s monthly scrap market survey. It’s a premium feature that complements our long-running steel market survey. We’ve been running our scrap survey since late January. And over just that short time, it’s become a valuable way not only for us to assess where scrap prices might go but also to quantify some of the “fuzzy” indicators - like sentiment and flows - that help to put the price in context.
Final Thoughts
I think there is an obvious case for sheet and plate prices going higher from here. That’s because, on a very basic level, the floor for flat-rolled steel prices, which is typically provided by imports, is now significantly higher than it was a week ago.