SMU Data and Models
SMU Market Trends: Flat Roll Lead Times Extending
Written by Tim Triplett
February 8, 2018
Mill lead times on flat roll continue to extend as buyers order steel ahead of further price increases. The latest data from Steel Market Update’s market trends questionnaire indicates that the average lead time for hot roll has now topped five weeks, while lead times for cold roll, galvanized and Galvalume are now approximately seven weeks.
One of the key indicators tracked by SMU, lead times reflect the activity at the mills and the order levels they are seeing from their customers. Lead times have been lengthening steadily since November through four rounds of mill price increases, reflecting buoyant demand as 2018 gets off to a strong start.
Hot rolled lead times now average 5.07 weeks, up from 4.50 weeks in mid-January, and at the highest level since June 2016.
Cold-rolled lead times average 6.93 weeks, a jump from 6.27 weeks a month ago, and at their longest since January 2017.
Galvanized lead times moved up to 7.08 weeks from 6.63 weeks one month ago. The galv lead time was at 6.0 weeks in mid-October, and thus has moved out by a full week over the past three and a half months. Galvalume lead times, at 6.86 weeks are up slightly from 6.64 weeks one month ago.
Overall, 55 percent of steel buyers reported that mill lead times are extending, while another 42 percent consider lead times normal for this time of year. Only 3 percent of respondents said lead times are shorter than expected. “Some mills are way behind. Most mills are shipping late,” commented one buyer.
Note: These lead times are based on the average from manufacturers and steel service centers who participated in this week’s SMU market trends analysis. Our lead times do not predict what any individual may get from any specific mill supplier. Look to your mill rep for actual lead times. Our lead times are meant only to identify trends and changes in the marketplace. To see an interactive history of our Steel Mill Lead Times data, visit our website here.
Tim Triplett
Read more from Tim TriplettLatest in SMU Data and Models
May service center shipments and inventories report
Flat rolled = 57.1 shipping days of supply Plate = 55.7 shipping days of supply Flat rolled US service centers reined in flat roll supply in May, coinciding with declining shipments. At the end of May, service centers carried 57.1 shipping days of supply, according to adjusted SMU data. That’s down slightly from 57.6 shipping […]
Survey says: Market hit with another blast of tariff whiplash
If you’re feeling a sudden jerk and a case of tariff whiplash coming on, you’re not alone.
SMU flat-rolled market survey results now available
SMU’s latest steel buyers market survey results are now available on our website to all premium members. After logging in at steelmarketupdate.com, visit the pricing and analysis tab and look under the “survey results” section for “latest survey results.” Past survey results are also available under that selection. If you need help accessing the survey results, or if […]
SMU Survey: Steel Buyers’ Sentiment sinks to near pandemic levels
SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices moved in opposing directions this week. Our Current Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Index sharply fell to one of the lowest levels recorded in five years, while Future Buyers’ Sentiment marginally improved.
SMU Survey: Mill lead times tick higher after late-May lows
All five of the averages for sheet and plate mill lead times tracked by SMU extended moderately this week, according to buyers responding to our latest market survey.