Final Thoughts

Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
March 21, 2018
WOW! What a day. I don’t know if anyone has the ability to accurately calculate the value of a piece of steel based on what has been happening since President Trump all of a sudden announced Section 232 tariffs while answering a reporter’s question. With the announcement of more countries being excluded from the tariffs, the market (stock and steel both) is in an uproar.
Even with the newly excluded countries there are enough tons missing to create a shortage of certain products. Some questions that still exist:
- Will NLMK USA be able to get slabs to keep running?
- Will AK Steel Ashland restart (so far, the answer is no)?
- Are there available tons from the excluded countries to take up some/all of the shortfall?
Don’t forget there are still AD/CVD duties in place against some of these countries.
USS/POSCO or UPI sent out a letter late today to their customers advising that they have limited availability to take new orders. The letter sounds like a way of saying they are going to be on allocation for some time.
We have had a busy couple of days taking registrations for our 8th SMU Steel Summit Conference, which will be the largest flat rolled steel conference in North America. Our conference is the premier conference for buyers and sellers of steel. We should have our agenda online sometime tomorrow or at the latest by Monday. Remember, when making your flight reservations, you want to arrive into ATL by noon on Monday, Aug. 27, and you want to try to arrange for a flight back around 4:30 p.m. or later so you don’t miss the media personality who will be at the end of our program on Wednesday. Registration can be done through our website: www.SteelMarketUpdate.com/events/steel-summit or by contacting our office at 772-932-7538.
We have also opened up registration for our June Steel 101 workshop, which will be held in Memphis, Tenn., and will include a tour of the Nucor Hickman and Nucor-Yamato steel mills. This will be a special workshop for those who attend. You can find information and registration links on our website: www.SteelMarketUpdate.com/events/steel101 or you can contact our office at 772-932-7538.
As always, your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, Publisher

John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in Final Thoughts

Final Thoughts
Can technology help with pig iron and DRI/HBI tariffs?

Final Thoughts
Tariff-related noise aside, there is one basic factor keeping buyers on the sidelines. Despite recent declines, HR prices remain at historically high levels. And there is no obvious support to keep them there.

Final Thoughts
United Airlines raised eyebrows earlier this month when it provided two forecasts for 2025 – one assuming a relatively stable economy and another assuming a recession. The reason? Uncertainty around the impact of President Trump’s policy shocks on the broader economy. And it sometimes feels like we’re seeing a battle between those two narratives (stable vs recession) play out within in the pages of this newsletter.

Final Thoughts
Despite some scary headlines lately (especially about Trump potentially firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell) this is not October 2008 (financial crisis) or March 2020 (onset of the pandemic). But it sure seems like we’ve taken a relatively strong economy and poured a thick sauce of uncertainty over it.

Final Thoughts
I put some of our survey data through ChatGpt, with interesting results.