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    Analysis

    Final Thoughts

    Written by John Packard


    If your company is interested in a sponsor spot at the 2019 SMU Steel Summit Conference in Atlanta (Aug. 26-28), please contact Jill Waldman at Jill@SteelMarketUpdate.com so we can get you our sponsorship package as soon as it is ready. Those companies that were sponsors this year will have first crack at committing for 2019. Please let Jill know your intentions.

    My crazy schedule continues as I will be out of the office on Friday of this week. I will be in Minnesota on Monday (Sept. 24), then flying to Pittsburgh that evening where I will visit the CRU USA offices for a couple of days, returning to my office on Thursday of next week. After two full days in the office, I leave for Chicago where I will attend the CRU North American Steel Conference. The dates for the conference are Oct. 1-3 and it will be held at the Swissotel in downtown Chicago. If you would like to learn more, you can do so by clicking here.

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    The midterms are over, and Democrats will control both chambers of Congress in January. In this space last week, Lewis Leibowitz predicted that President Trump's tariffs, including Section 232, may not last much longer. We disagree. To be sure, the new Congress will change trade policy. It will hold hearings, write bills, and almost certainly revisit the trade dispute with Canada. But the foundation of US trade policy is unlikely to be disturbed. Section 232 and Section 301 are established, court-tested authorities that both parties have used. They are also working.

    SMU Survey: Current and Future Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices rise

    SMU’s Current and Future Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices increased this week, according to our latest market survey.   Every two weeks, SMU polls thousands of steel-industry executives, asking them to rate their companies’ chances of success today and also three to six months down the road. We use their responses to calculate our proprietary Current and Future Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices, measures tracked since 2008.

    US heating and cooling shipments fall for third straight month

    US shipments of heating and cooling equipment slipped in September for a third consecutive month, according to the latest data from the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI). Shipments declined 2.6% month on month (m/m) in September, after having fallen 10% m/m in August. The monthly pace marks the third-slowest shipment rate year to date. Historically, shipments are strongest in early summer and weakest around the turn of the year, driven by seasonal air conditioner and heat pump volumes. AHRI's data shows September shipments totaled 1,687,240 units, down 2.6% m/m but up 7.7% year over year (y/y) (Figure 1, left). From August to September, shipments of warm air furnaces, A/C, and heat pumps declined, while water heater shipments rose. Compared with a year earlier, only air conditioners and heat pump shipments were higher.