• Skip to main content

    Market Data

    October 12, 2018

    IMF Global Economic Outlook & Forecast

    Written by Peter Wright

    The International Monetary Fund, which updates its World Economic Outlook each April and October, has made a downward revision to its forecast for global GDP growth in 2018 and 2019.

    On Oct. 9, the IMF published the following: “The latest World Economic Outlook report projects that global growth will remain steady over 2018–19 at last year’s rate of 3.7 percent. This growth exceeds that achieved in any of the years between 2012 and 2016. It occurs as many economies have reached or are nearing full employment and as earlier deflationary fears have dissipated. Thus, policymakers still have an excellent opportunity to build resilience and implement growth-enhancing reforms. Last April, the world economy’s broad-based momentum led us to project a 3.9 percent growth rate for both this year and next. Considering developments since then, however, that number appears over-optimistic: rather than rising, growth has plateaued at 3.7 percent. And there are clouds on the horizon. Growth has proven to be less balanced than hoped. Not only have some downside risks that the last WEO identified been realized, the likelihood of further negative shocks to our growth forecast has risen. In several key economies, moreover, growth is being supported by policies that seem unsustainable over the long term. These concerns raise the urgency for policymakers to act. Growth in the United States, buoyed by a pro-cyclical fiscal package, continues at a robust pace and is driving U.S. interest rates higher. But U.S. growth will decline once parts of its fiscal stimulus go into reverse. Notwithstanding the present demand momentum, we have downgraded our 2019 U.S. growth forecast owing to the recently enacted tariffs on a wide range of imports from China and China’s retaliation. China’s expected 2019 growth is also marked down. Domestic Chinese policies are likely to prevent an even larger growth decline than the one we project, but at the cost of prolonging internal financial imbalances.” Click here for the full report.

    Peter Wright

    Read more from Peter Wright

    Latest in Market Data

    SMU scrap market survey results now available

    SMU’s November ferrous scrap market survey results are now available on our website to all premium members. After logging in at steelmarketupdate.com, visit the Pricing and Analysis tab and look under the “survey results” section for Ferrous Scrap Survey results. Past scrap survey results are also available under that selection. If you need help accessing the survey results or if your company would like to have your voice heard in our future surveys, contact smu@crugroup.com.

    Drilling activity ticks up in the US, eases in Canada

    The latest tally of active drilling rigs moved marginally higher in the US, up for the first time in five weeks. Activity eased in Canada this week, according to oil and gas rig count data published by Baker Hughes. The US rig count increased to 604 rigs this week, setting an 18-month high watermark. Compared with this time last year, 56 more rigs are in operation today. Canada’s count declined by three to 223 rigs this week, easing for the first time in three weeks. Activity is up from the same week of 2025, with 32 more rigs operating today.

    Market chatter: Supply, not price, dominates steel buyers’ concerns

    On Monday and Tuesday of this week, SMU polled steel buyers on an array of topics, ranging from market prices, demand, and inventories to tariffs, imports, and evolving market events. We are sharing a selection of the comments we received below, in each buyer’s own words. Before diving in, we reviewed all the responses collected and compiled these key takeaways: Respondents overwhelmingly anticipate further increases. Buyers cite limited supply, mill delays, low inventories, and steady-to-strong demand. Most say demand is generally stable to improving, with some purchasing driven by fears of higher prices or unavailable material rather than stronger underlying consumption. Most respondents report faster inventory turnover, while shortages are constraining sales and, in some cases, prompting customer allocations. Buyers increasingly see imports as a way to secure scarce material, though domestic-origin requirements, delivery timing, and pricing risks remain obstacles.

    ISM: Manufacturing sector expanded in October

    US manufacturing activity expanded for the 10th consecutive month in October, according to supply executives in the Institute for Supply Management's latest report. The October ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index registered 55.5%, up one percentage point from the prior month. An index reading above 50% indicates the manufacturing economy is growing, while a reading below that indicates contraction. ISM noted that the overall economy continued to expand in October for the 24th consecutive month, emphasizing that a PMI reading above 47.5% over a period of time generally indicates that the overall economy is growing.

    US steel output reaches 18-year high as South leads gains: AISI

    Domestic raw steel production surged last week, reaching its highest output in almost two decades, according to the latest American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) figures. While the seesaw pattern continued for US production this past week, production swelled to its highest reading since Aug. 23, 2008, driven by a massive swing in the South. The increase reversed the recent downward trend, with a sharp rebound in the South accounting for nearly all the weekly gain. Production has fluctuated considerably over the past two months, reaching both an 18-year high and its lowest level since January.