Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
January 9, 2019
It is so rare that I get to spend two weeks in the office, and I think I am going to be here for another week or so. At the end of the month, I will be in Mississippi to conduct one of our Steel 101 workshops. The Starkville workshop is close to being sold out, though we do have a few spots left. We will be spending time discussing pre-painted flat rolled steels as we will tour both the SDI Columbus steel mill and their paint line as part of our workshop. You can learn more general information on our website: www.SteelMarketUpdate.com/Events/Steel101
To be honest, I am spending an incredible amount of time working on the 2019 SMU Steel Summit Conference. We already have a strong program outlined and have gotten commitments from a number of solid speakers. If you have attended a previous SMU conference you will not be disappointed. If you have never attended one of our conferences, well, you are in for a treat. Be prepared to be entertained, educated and challenged as you rub shoulders with your suppliers, customers and people you want to know in the industry. Registration is open, and companies are already booking their executives. The Gateway hotels are also available for those who are registering for our event. For those new to our event, we have a listing of the companies that attended this past year on our website.
By the way, those of you who have an interest in being a sponsor – I think we have but a few spots left. We also have a few exhibition spaces available should your company want to be exposed to 1,000 decision-makers in manufacturing, steel distribution, steel mills, trading companies, toll processors and suppliers to those industries. If you have an interest, please contact Jill Waldman at Jill@SteelMarketUpdate.com
Earlier this week, I was contacted by a company that read one of our newsletters last week (they are not a regular member) and was impressed with the content and the way we presented the market to our readers. They asked if we would be available to speak at a conference they are putting on for their suppliers later this year. The answer to that question is yes, we are available to speak to your company or your organization. Depending on what you are trying to accomplish, we can provide numerous speaker options, including a combination of SMU and CRU experts. If you are interested in learning more about what it takes to get SMU to speak at your company or meeting, please contact me at John@SteelMarketUpdate.com
SMU also does custom training programs on a wide variety of topics from the steelmaking process, to customer service, sales and purchasing. We can also enlist the help of the CRU Group, which covers a much wider range of products including long products, aluminum, stainless, ferro-alloys, mill costing and much more. If interested, contact me.
For those of you who are about to renew your SMU memberships, please contact Paige Mayhair at 724-720-1012. She can work with you to find the best fit for your company. It has been my goal since I first began Steel Market Update that we provide products at prices that would allow companies to add all of their people and allow them to get our newsletter(s). With the help of the CRU Group, we are making that dream a reality. Call Paige and she will explain. One of the largest service centers in the United States was the first to get a “Global” license for our Premium membership. You are also welcomed to contact me if you would like to speak about this, or anything else for that matter. I can be reached at 800-432-3475.
As always, your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, President & CEO
John Packard
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Final Thoughts
We just wrapped another Steel 101 Workshop, where you take what you learned in the classroom into the steel mill.
Final Thoughts
Steel equities and steel futures fell hard after news broke earlier this week that the US and Mexico might reach an agreement that would result in the 50% Section 232 tariff coming off Mexican steel. The sharp declines didn’t make much sense, especially if, as some reports indicate, Mexico might agree to a fixed quota. They didn't make sense even if steel flows between the US and Mexico remain unchanged.
Final Thoughts
Even before the news about Mexico, I didn’t want to overstate the magnitude of the change in momentum. As far as we could tell, there hadn’t been a frenzy of new ordering following President Trump’s announcement of 50% Section 232 tariffs. But higher tariffs had unquestionably raised prices for imports, which typically provide the floor for domestic pricing. We’d heard, for example, that prices below $800 per short ton for hot-rolled (HR) coil were gone from the domestic market – even for larger buyers.
Final Thoughts
I want to draw your attention to SMU’s monthly scrap market survey. It’s a premium feature that complements our long-running steel market survey. We’ve been running our scrap survey since late January. And over just that short time, it’s become a valuable way not only for us to assess where scrap prices might go but also to quantify some of the “fuzzy” indicators - like sentiment and flows - that help to put the price in context.
Final Thoughts
I think there is an obvious case for sheet and plate prices going higher from here. That’s because, on a very basic level, the floor for flat-rolled steel prices, which is typically provided by imports, is now significantly higher than it was a week ago.