Steel Products Prices North America

SMU Price Ranges & Indices: HRC Tumbles

Written by Brett Linton

January 15, 2019

When we looked at the hot rolled coil market this week, it became apparent there were a number of pressures on that particular product. Pressures from short lead times, for one. Some of our sources reported HRC lead times around 2-3 weeks. We also have at least one mill looking for market share with numbers at $650 per ton. We adjusted our range to take into consideration the new competitive pressures, but we wanted to make it clear that the $650 number is not a readily available number out of multiple suppliers. Nonetheless, we are seeing a large number of data points in the $680-$700 per ton area this week. We thought about having two ranges this week – one at $650-$720 and a second at $675-$720. We decided to go with the numbers that are in the market, even if for limited tons, albeit with the explanation we just provided.

The spread between HRC and cold rolled and coated base prices has been averaging approximately $100 per ton over the past few weeks. That average continues if you take out the $650-$660 offers that are skewing the HRC numbers.

Here is how we see prices this week:

Hot Rolled Coil: SMU price range is $650-$720 per ton ($32.50/cwt-$36.00/cwt) with an average of $685 per ton ($34.25/cwt) FOB mill, east of the Rockies. The lower end of our range declined $40 per ton compared to one week ago, while the upper end fell $30 per ton. Our overall average is down $35 per ton compared to last week. Our price momentum on hot rolled steel is Lower meaning we expect prices to decline over the next 30 to 60 days.

Hot Rolled Lead Times: 2-5 weeks

Cold Rolled Coil: SMU price range is $780-$820 per ton ($39.00/cwt-$41.00/cwt) with an average of $800 per ton ($40.00/cwt) FOB mill, east of the Rockies. The lower end of our range fell $20 per ton compared to last week, while the upper end fell $30 per ton. Our overall average is down $25 compared to one week ago. Our price momentum on cold rolled steel is Lower meaning we expect prices to decline over the next 30 to 60 days.

Cold Rolled Lead Times: 4-7 weeks

Galvanized Coil: SMU base price range is $38.50/cwt-$42.00/cwt ($770-$840 per ton) with an average of $40.25/cwt ($805 per ton) FOB mill, east of the Rockies. The lower end of our range declined $10 per ton compared to one week ago, while the upper end fell $20 per ton. Our overall average is down $15 per ton compared to last week. Our price momentum on galvanized steel is Lower meaning we expect prices to decline over the next 30 to 60 days.

Galvanized .060” G90 Benchmark: SMU price range is $848-$918 per net ton with an average of $883 per ton FOB mill, east of the Rockies.

Galvanized Lead Times: 5-9 weeks

Galvalume Coil: SMU base price range is $38.50/cwt-$42.00/cwt ($770-$840 per ton) with an average of $40.25/cwt ($805 per ton) FOB mill, east of the Rockies. The lower end of our range declined $10 per ton compared to last week, while the upper end fell $20 per ton. Our overall average is down $15 per ton compared to one week ago. Our price momentum on Galvalume steel is Lower meaning we expect prices to decline over the next 30 to 60 days.

Galvalume .0142” AZ50, Grade 80 Benchmark: SMU price range is $1,061-$1,131 per net ton with an average of $1,096 per ton FOB mill, east of the Rockies.

Galvalume Lead Times: 6-7 weeks

Plate: SMU price range is $980-$1,030 per ton ($49.00/cwt-$51.50/cwt) with an average of $1,005 per ton ($50.25/cwt) FOB delivered to the customer’s facility. The lower end of our range fell $10 per ton compared to one week ago, while the upper end remained the same. Our overall average is down $5 per ton compared to last week. Our price momentum on plate steel is Neutral meaning we expect stable prices over the next 30 days. The domestic plate mills continue to be on controlled order entry as their order books are strong with limited spot plate tonnage available.

Plate Lead Times: 5-9+ weeks, allocation/controlled order entry

SMU Note: Below is a graphic showing our hot rolled, cold rolled, galvanized, Galvalume and plate price history. This data is available here on our website with our interactive pricing tool. Note that plate prices are not yet available on our website, but we are in the process of adding that dataset. If you need help navigating the website or need to know your login information, contact us at info@SteelMarketUpdate.com or 800-432-3475.

Brett Linton

Brett Linton is a senior analyst for Steel Market Update, where he began his career. Linton has been in the steel industry since 2010. He has held roles as a category manager and strategic insights director at Reibus before returning to SMU in 2024. He is a graduate of The University of North Georgia with a degree in Finance and Accounting. Brett can be reached at brett@steelmarketupdate.com or 724-314-0179.

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