Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
May 1, 2019
U.S. Steel announced a major $1.2 billion investment in new thin-slab casting technology, a new rolling mill and a co-gen power plant at its Mon Valley Works complex. This investment is not adding new steelmaking capacity to USS Mon Valley, which is rated at 2.9 million net tons. In a note to her clients, Bank of America Merrill Lynch analyst Timna Tanners referenced her SteelMageddon ™ view, which calls for a wholesale destruction in steel prices about the time this USS investment is scheduled to come online. USS has their earnings conference call on Friday and SMU will be interested to hear what the company has to say and how they respond to analysts’ questions. We will have an article about what we learned on the conference call in Sunday evening’s issue of SMU. Note: Timna Tanners will be a speaker at the 2019 SMU Steel Summit Conference as we tackle the subject of new mill capacities and what the future will look like.
Speaking of our conference, the numbers have surged over the past 24 hours and we are well over 400 registrations for the 2019 SMU Steel Summit Conference. There are 115 days to go before the start of the conference. It is time to get the troops rounded up and register them for the Aug. 26-28, 2019, conference at the Georgia International Convention Center. Come join us!
Here are some of the new registrations we received just today. Those with an * mean more than one person registered from that company: Nucor*, Alliance Steel*, Gibraltar*, Ryerson*, Butech Bliss, Lapham-Hickey Steel, Material Sciences Corporation*, Reliance Steel & Aluminum*, Marubeni-Itochu Steel America*, UBS Securities*, ArcelorMittal Dofasco, Morton Buildings and Bull Moose Tube.
To learn more about the conference and to register: www.SteelMarketUpdate.com/events/steel-summit
I want to welcome our newest member companies and also take a moment to thank existing companies who have been taking advantage of our more flexible membership plans. For details, reach out to Paige Mayhair at 724-720-1012 or by email at Paige@SteelMarketUpdate.com
As always, your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, President & CEO
John Packard
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Final Thoughts
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Final Thoughts
I want to draw your attention to SMU’s monthly scrap market survey. It’s a premium feature that complements our long-running steel market survey. We’ve been running our scrap survey since late January. And over just that short time, it’s become a valuable way not only for us to assess where scrap prices might go but also to quantify some of the “fuzzy” indicators - like sentiment and flows - that help to put the price in context.
Final Thoughts
I think there is an obvious case for sheet and plate prices going higher from here. That’s because, on a very basic level, the floor for flat-rolled steel prices, which is typically provided by imports, is now significantly higher than it was a week ago.
Final Thoughts
We're about to hit 50% Section 232 steel tariffs. What could happen?
Final Thoughts
With higher tariff rates on steel and aluminum set to go into effect on Wednesday, June 4, a new round of chaos across the supply chain is likely in store. Expect a significant impact on manufacturers and metal fabricators. But even before the latest round of Trump-tariff whiplash on Friday evening, there was a lot of interesting data coming out of SMU's steel-market survey.