SMU Data and Models
SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index: More Pessimism
Written by Tim Triplett
May 12, 2019
Data in Steel Market Update’s Steel Buyers Sentiment Index continues to trend more pessimistic with Current Sentiment hitting its lowest reading in two and a half years. Industry executives appear less optimistic in light of declining steel prices, uncertain demand and contentious negotiations with U.S. trading partners.
The goal of the index is to measure how buyers and sellers of steel feel about their company’s ability to be successful today (Current Index), as well as three to six months into the future (Future Index). Results are posted as both single data points and as three-month moving averages (3MMAs) to smooth out the trend. While still on the optimistic half of the scale, sentiment among industry executives has been on the decline since peaking at +78 in January 2018.
Current Sentiment measured as a single data point registered +47 in the latest data, down 14 points from +61 a month ago. Measured as a 3MMA, Current Sentiment averaged 55.00, down more than 3 points from 58.33 in early April.
Future Sentiment
Respondents were asked to assess their chances for success in three to six months. Measured as a single data point, Future Sentiment registered +49, down 16 points from the +65 reading a month ago. Measured as a 3MMA, the Future Index averaged 59.00, down from 61.17 in SMU’s early April questionnaire. Both measures have dipped significantly in the past month.
What Our Respondents Had to Say
“For this time of the year, we should be busier than we are. Concerned about the 2H19.”
“Margins are at levels that will not allow any service center to be profitable without adding services that will cause it to compete with its customers.”
“Continual trade restrictions (Section 232 and others) as well as potential future tariff that could be announced via Twitter make us very concerned about the future.”
“Demand for plate has softened a little.”
“The construction market volume should revive, but there is concern about the HR market. It could pull pricing down.”
“Commodity pricing is the biggest issue. If pricing continues to drop, 2019 will not be good.”
“If prices hold and demand picks up as predicted, we have the inventory to participate.”
“Stabilization in volumes could be offset with lower pricing.”
“Still too much uncertainty, but as long as business demand remains steady and strong, we’ll find a way to be successful.”
About the SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index
SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index is a measurement of the current attitude of buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel products in North America regarding how they feel about their company’s opportunity for success in today’s market. It is a proprietary product developed by Steel Market Update for the North American steel industry.
Positive readings will run from +10 to +100 and the arrow will point to the righthand side of the meter located on the Home Page of our website indicating a positive or optimistic sentiment. Negative readings will run from -10 to -100 and the arrow will point to the lefthand side of the meter on our website indicating negative or pessimistic sentiment. A reading of “0” (+/- 10) indicates a neutral sentiment (or slightly optimistic or pessimistic), which is most likely an indicator of a shift occurring in the marketplace.
Readings are developed through Steel Market Update market surveys that are conducted twice per month. We display the index reading on a meter on the Home Page of our website for all to see. Currently, we send invitations to participate in our survey to more than 600 North American companies. Our normal response rate is approximately 110-150 companies. Of those responding to this week’s survey, 36 percent were manufacturers and 45 percent were service centers/distributors. The balance was made up of steel mills, trading companies and toll processors involved in the steel business. Click here to view an interactive graphic of the SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index or the SMU Future Steel Buyers Sentiment Index.
Tim Triplett
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