SMU Data and Models

Steel Mill Lead Times: Shorter Still

June 6, 2019

Lead times for spot orders of all types of steel products continued to shorten in the past two weeks with demand falling below the pace of steel production. The average lead time for hot rolled is now below three and a half weeks, cold rolled is nearing five weeks, galvanized is less than six weeks and Galvalume is slightly above six weeks. Lead time for steel plate has declined to nearly four and a half weeks, according to Steel Market Update data. Our graphic (shown below) tells the tale and helps to explain why there has been pressure on flat rolled and plate steel pricing.

Lead times for steel delivery are a measure of demand at the mill level. The shorter the lead time, the lighter the order activity at the mills and the more likely they are to negotiate on price.

Hot rolled lead times now average 3.44 weeks, down from 3.57 weeks in mid-May. Current lead times for hot rolled are a full two weeks shorter than at this time last year when steel was in strong demand.

Cold rolled lead times, at 5.19 weeks, have shortened by about one-half week since SMU’s last market canvass. Cold rolled lead times at this time last year averaged 7.40 weeks.

Average lead times for galvanized dipped to 5.84 weeks from 6.05 weeks as measured two weeks ago. Galvanized lead times were two and a half weeks longer at this time last year. The current average lead time for spot orders of Galvalume is unchanged at around 6.38 weeks.

Lead times for spot orders of plate steel now average 4.70 weeks, much shorter than the 7.00 weeks in early June 2018 when plate was in tight supply.

Note: These lead times are based on the average from manufacturers and steel service centers who participated in this week’s SMU market trends analysis. Our lead times do not predict what any individual may get from any specific mill supplier. Look to your mill rep for actual lead times. Our lead times are meant only to identify trends and changes in the marketplace. To see an interactive history of our Steel Mill Lead Times data, visit our website here.